Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2108.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670..

Recap

I have to admit, Tuesday's action took me completely by surprise.  I really wasn't expecting the Dow to take a 105 point tumble, its biggest loss in three weeks.  I figured people would just be sitting on their hands waiting for the Fed announcement Wednesday  Given that the odds of a rate hike are so low, it's difficult to see what drove this.  At least we are going to get an answer to the Fed question on Wednesday and then we can turn our attention to the upcoming Election Farce next week.



The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:38 AM EDT with ES down 0.34%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2121.75 to 2108.08.  Even at that ES is back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   0      1       0           0       0.000    -105

     And the winner is...

It is my policy never to call Fed days so tonight is real easy: Wednesday uncertain.  For the record, I just don't see a rate hike coming before December.  And off the record, a fair amount of technical damage was done by Tuesday's market drop.  It remains to be seen if we get any confirmation of that, though Wednesday is sure to be skewed by the Fed announcement and then it's on to the election angst.  Interesting times we live in ...

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.