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- Thursday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2084.42. Holding below is bearish.
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670..
Well that was certainly interesting. The Fed, to the complete surprise of absolutely no one, did not in fact raise rates on Wednesday. But Mr. Market nonetheless drove lower anyway. Among the multitude of reasons I heard cited for this was that this now increased the likelihood of an increase in December. But I thought everyone was already expecting that. Or maybe not.
In the end, you end up second-guessing your second guess and that's all just a good way to drive yourself crazy Bottom line, the Dow shed another 77 points and this has some important ramifications. I really wasn't going to write anything this week given all the uncertainty about, but this is just too good to pass up. Let's take a look.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:30 AM EDT with ES down 0.16%. ES RSI has now hit 0.5. It doesn't get much more oversold than that.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2095.33 to 2084.42. ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.
average points January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120
September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314 November 0 1 1 0 0.000 -105
And the winner is...
Tonight, things are starting to get pretty oversold. And we got an interesting bullish divergence in the trans, which gained 0.22% on a day the Dow was down 0.43%. However, the futures continue to run lower in the overnight and I don't see any outright reversal signals just yet. But given the current weirdness in the market (I note that ES had gained four points just as I write this) I think it might just be better for me to call Thursday uncertain and see if we get a more definitive sign of a bottom then.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.