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- Friday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2084.42. Holding below is bearish.
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
Despite starting to look fairly oversold last night some more air came out of the balloon on Thursday with the Dow down another 29 points as it continues to ride its lower BB lower. That makes it down six in a row now, its longest losing streak since last July when it was down seven. Is that in the cards this time around? Let's see what the charts have to say about Friday as we round out a rocky start to what's supposed to be a good month for the market.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:44 AM EDT with ES up 0.06%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2095.33 to 2087.33. ES remains below its new pivot so once again this indicator continues bearish.
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304 August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120 September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
November 0 1 2 0 0.000 -105
And the winner is...
Tonight we're starting to see a few early signs of bottoming: the SPX Hi-Lo indicator fell again Thursday to 21, though that's still not as low as I'd like to see. And ES's RSI fell again to 0.45 about as low as it can go and the new overnight is actually rising slightly along with a small uptick in OBV which has been falling for two weeks now. Also, the VIX is now impossibly overbought and I can't believe it's not coming back down to earth soon, election or no election. But we're only still just above 20. During the Brexit brouha last June, the VIX managed to hit 26 before giving up and it hit a whopping 32 way back in January back when, uh I can't even remember - Martians landed on Wall St. perhaps.
So given the current turmoil, I'm reluctant to stick out my neck. I really want to see what this blasted election will bring and then maybe we can get back to business. So it's simply Friday uncertain. Oh, and I'm planning on taking all of Thanksgiving week off. I need a break.
That's all she wrote. See you again Sunday night!
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.