Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2121.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Foo.  Well that sure was a big waste of my time.  On Monday we got a whopping 63 point range that ended with the Dow down all of 19 points.  Everyone is obviously just sitting on their hands in anticipation of the Fed - and then of course next week's big election where your choice boils down to which flavor of paranoid psychosis you prefer.  I haven't got much else to say about the day so let's just update the stats and move right on to the bottom line.
VIX, daily

The technicals

The VIX:  The VIX looks ready to move lower, which would be good for stocks.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:24 AM EDT with ES up 0.33%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2123.83 to 2121.75.  But ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      4       4           1       0.733     295

     And the winner is...

Well we've got the Fed decision looming on Wednesday (and I still don't believe they'd have the temerity to raise rates a few days before the election, particularly given the uproar the FBI created with their own surprise disclosure last week) and given the tiny ranges we've been seeing lately, I'm really wanting to just punt and call Tuesday uncertain.  But on Monday the VIX put in an inverted hammer that bounced off its upper BB after a nice five day run.  Also it's also the first of November which is historically positive and the futures are supporting that with non-trivial gains in the overnight so I'm going to take a chance and call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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