Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding below is bearish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ looking toppy.

Recap

Things were looking great for my call for a higher close Monday - until the Dow fell off a cliff in the very last minutes of the session to end down 10 points.  What the heck?  Oh well - it almost worked out. Now let's see how that changes the picture for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's last second dive resulted in a tall inverted hammer that looks quite bearish when combined with indicators turning lower just before reaching overbought and a stochastic on the brink of a bearish crossover.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "there's a good suggestion of a move higher from here" so at least I got that right as the VIX gained 3% on Monday.  Indicators have bottomed and the stochastic is primed for a bullish crossover so this one looks higher again on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:25 AM EDT with ES up  0.05%.  ES had its own tall inverted hammer on Monday and is back to overbought but remains in a rising RTC.  And it does seem to be trying to rally in the overnight, so this one is too tough to call right now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094.58 to 2098.33. And that was enough to put ES back below the new pivot so this indicator is now bearish. 

Dollar index:  After a meteoric rise last month, the dollar is now putting in an equally spectacular fell, gapping down 0.89% on Monday in what now looks like an exponential crash.  The indicators are finally oversold but the stochastic is not yet ready for a bullish crossover so we might still have some more downside left here.  But with this waterfall curve, it looks like a blow-off that is close to completion.

Euro:  And the euro had a big day Monday gapping back up to 1.0954.  But it is now overbought and the overnight is moving lower again.  But remaining in a rising RTC, we need confirmation before calling this one lower for Tuesday.

Transportation:  Big bearish divergence here as the trans were slaughtered on Monday, down nearly two percent for their worst day since January 30th.  That sent the indicators way off overbought and completed a bearish stochastic crossover.  And with the lower BB still far away, this chart doe not look good for Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      3      6       4           3       0.500    344

     And the winner is...

With a close call on Monday and ES close to its pivot I'm going to do yet another conditional call: if ES stays below its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we close lower, but if it breaks above the pivot and stays there by mid-morning, we close higher.

Single Stock Trader

With a red hanging man and overbought indicators, VZ is looking fairly toppy tonight.  No way I'm buying it here.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2094.58.  Holding above is bullish.  Now on "M" contract.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy.

Recap

Well Friday proved to be entertaining enough with a big pop out the gate and then a nice ballistic arc to finish off the day in style..  And the up/down see-saw continued, making now eight straight days of alternating gains and losses, and 12 of the last 13.  Anyway, now that we've got the Fed Follies and the triple-witching worries out of the way for a while, perhaps we can get back to some more predictable market action.  So let's get right to it and figure out where Monday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow remains in a bizarre stair-step uptrend.  The indicators still aren't quite yet overbought but based on recent history, you'd have to go with a move lower on Monday.  It's been a sure thing for seven in a row.

The VIX:  Now here at least we have a slightly more rational chart.  On Friday the VIX gapped down 7.46% nearly touching its lower BB with the tail of a hammer.  With oversold indicators there's a good suggestion of a move higher form here but one which requires confirmation on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:41 AM EDT with ES up  0.17%.  On Friday ES had a nice day putting in a bullish engulfing candle but still unable to make any headway past YTD resistance at 2102.  Indicators are now overbought but the stochastic has threaded out and thus lost its predictive powers (or mojo as we like to say).  But ES seems intent on scouting out the record territory here so it's a bit premature to call it lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2085.67 to 2094.58.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.  We are now running the "M" contract.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar continued its recent decline with a big 1.42% decline.  The daily rising RTC is now clearly down.  But moving out to the monthly chart we see a big developing inverted hammer with a stochastic that has just formed a bearish crossover.  I'm starting to wonder if maybe the dollar has seen its top right around the 2009 highs.  Hey monthly RSI is at 100 now.  There's nowhere to go but down from there.

Euro:  Meanwhile it looks like my call for the euro to pull into the Parityville station by the end of the month was derailed as someone threw a switch that sent the euro higher last week.  We've now existed the shortest descending RTC and the daily indicators are not yet overbought so there could still be some more upside left there.

Transportation:  The trans were giving out a reversal signal Thursday night with a doji star but that was rejected Friday in a big way with a 0.32% gain to keep the rising RTC intact.  That leaves the indicators overbought but no bearish signs left - just resistance around 9179.  And it seems like we'll be headed that way in a day or two.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      3      5       4           3       0.545    354

     And the winner is...

According to the Stock Traders Almanac, the Dow is up seven of the last 11 following March triple witching.    We also remain in an uptrend, albeit an on again-off again one and the futures are higher in the overnight.  And the TLT is looking toppy, and copper recently bottomed which implies higher stocks.  But the VIX looks getting ready to move higher which implies lower stocks.  What to do?

Overall I think I'm going to have to go with the bull case so with a fair amount of trepidation and going way out on a limb, I'm calling Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ managed to advance last Friday but until I see its RSI and stochastic scraping the bottom and not bumping against the ceiling, I'm not getting on board.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2094.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy.

Recap

The recent mean reversion sort of action we've been seeing after big gains the past few days asserted itself again on Thursday and trumped my call for a higher close.  I even mentioned it when I wrote "Ordinarily I'd say that after such a sudden large one-day move we'd be due for a pause".  Too bad I didn't stand by it.  Oh well - one more day to go and this crazy week is done.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow has alternated up and down for 11 of the last 12 now in an odd sort of stair-step rise that has consistently dragged the indicators higher.  On that alone there's not much to go by.  The only thing I see that's cause for concern is the stochastic which has now flattened out in preparation for a bearish crossover.  I'd be cautious here on Friday.

The VIX:  The VIX moved just 0.72% higher on a day the Dow fell triple digits in a sort of bullish divergence, unable to break back above its 200 day MA.  Nevertheless we are now oversold so it's reasonable to assume the next VIX trend will be higher.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: AM EDT with ES up 0.11%  On Thursday ES put in a vague approximation of a dark cloud cover along with sending indicators overbought.  The stochastic is primed for a bearish crossover so despite a small run-up in the late evening hours, this chart has at least the suggestion of a reversal.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2089.58 to 2094.25.  That's enough to put ES back below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar on Thursday recouped about 2/3 of its losses Wednesday in a move that sent the indicators off overbought.  That still leaves us in an official descending RTC though, the first downtrend I've seen here since last October.  What does this mean for the market?  Hard to say - the dollar has seemingly decoupled from the stock market lately.  It's also still not clear that the current trend means anything in a larger monthly context.

Euro:  The euro by contrast advanced nicely on Thursday to close at 1.0753 but is in the process of giving it all back in the overnight suggesting that the action of the last three days was nothing more than a multi-day fake-out.

Transportation:  The trans were completely unchanged Thursday after a long-legged doji that coupled with highly overbought indicators and a stochastic just inches away from a bearish crossover all suggest a move lower on Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      3      5       3           3       0.545    354

     And the winner is...

There are some indications of a move lower for Friday but they generally require confirmation.  But with this being a triple-witching day with no doubt all the usual accompanying gyrations, my usual policy is to stay away.  So I'm just calling Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader


At least I was correct in staying away from VZ which moved a bit lower Thursday and is now hovering just above its 200 day MA.  With a spinning top, overbought indicators, and a stochastic that just formed a bearish crossover, I'd say there's more downside coming for VZ.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2089.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy.

Recap

There goes the patient!

Wow.  The Night Owl is astonished!  We've been hearing the talking heads blathering on for weeks about whether Wednesday's Fed statement would contain the P word.  Well in a truly masterful sleight of hand worthy of Houdini himself, Janet Yellin managed to remove the patient before the doctor even realized he was gone.

And Mr. Market, clearly impressed with such artful wizardry, responded enthusiastically by jacking up the Dow a handy 227 points, and that was after being down over 100 before lunch.  And it left all the shorts who were expecting a rate hike  red-faced with, uh, their pants down.

It was a day trader's dream, that's for sure, but unfortunately nothing we could capitalize on as swing traders.  I decided to just skip all the hoop-la based on the risk involved but was rewarded anyway simply by virtue of the pure theatrics.  Have you ever seen so many people hanging on a single word, "patient"?  Yessirree - that was a hot one, Moe!  You don't see that every day.

OK, OK, let me catch my breath and get back to business here as we see what impact this sudden turn of events might have on Thursday.


The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I said Wednesday would be news-driven and to the complete surprise of absolutely no one, it was, as the Fed's re3moval of the word "patient" sent the Dow shooting up 1.27% the instant the news came out.  After factoring out the excitement though, we're left with 11 of the last 12 sessions reversing direction.  On that basis alone, Thursday will be lower.  There's also the buyer's regret function at work.  The last two big up-candles have been followed by a down day.  And now the indicators are nearly overbought.  But in the absence of an actual bearish reversal sign, this one is too tough to call.

The VIX:  Auntie Janet let a lot of hot air out of the VIX on Wednesday as it deflated a big 10.79% gap-down to crash right through its 200 day MA dragging all the indicators along for a ride towards oversold.  There's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:25 AM EDT with ES up  0.17%  ES had a great day Thursday courtesy of Ms. Yellin enough to drive the indicators overbought but not enough to fold over the stochastic for a bearish crossover.  There's still a bit of room to run to the next resistance line at 2115 too and I'd expect ES to touch it before taking a leg down.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2072.50  to 2089.58.  We remain well above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Wednesday the dollar - gasp - fell, and it fell hard, down 1.177% for its worst one day performance since, oh I don't know - since the left hand edge of my daily chart and I'm too lazy to scroll back looking for it.  A good while anyway.  And that established a new descending RTC, meaning last month's uptrend is now officially over.  Is this the exponential blow-off top in the dollar we've all been waiting for?  Too soon to tell yet, but given the frenetic pace of the year-long run-up, it might be.

Euro:  Wow - we're just full of surprise today, aren't we.  The euro took off like a rocket to close at 1.0753.  And the overnight is gapping even higher, exiting the latest descending RTC and effectively derailing my call for parity by the end of March.  With a new rising RTC in place, ain't gonna happen just yet.  On the other hand, it remains to be seen if this mini-rally has any legs and judging by the overnight action, that's in some doubt too.

Transportation:  The trans on Wednesday was up like everything else but with a hanging man.  We're still in a rising RTC though and the indicators aren't quite yet overbought so it's still to early to calla  top here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      3      4       3           3       0.600    471

     And the winner is...

Ordinarily I'd say that after such a sudden large one-day move we'd be due for a pause and perhaps some profit-taking.  But given that it's not Friday yet and there's no bearish signs to speak of on the charts, I think they're going to knock 'em higher again Thursday to (possibly) do profit-taking on Friday.  So it's Thursday higher for me.

Single Stock Trader

After a nice pop Wednesday like everything else, VZ is hard up against YTD resistance with nearly overbought indicators.  It's been cycling nicely so far this year so I'd wait for the next pullback before getting back on this bus.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2072.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ possible reversal - no trade ahead of the Fed.

Recap

With everyone pretty much on Fed watch waiting to see if the word "patience" puts in an appearance, and with me still not feeling so hot, this seems like the perfect time to take another sick day.  I'd be calling Wednesday as uncertain anyway.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2067.58  to 2072.50.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish, keeping in mind that I expect Wednesday to be news-driven.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      3      4       2           3       0.600    471

     And the winner is...

I don't have the hubris to make a call ahead of such a big Fed announcement so it's simply Wednesday uncertain as we wait for the fireworks.

Single Stock Trader

I definitely wouldn't be playing VZ ahead of the Fed.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2099.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ - no analysis.

Recap

Looks like my conditional call trick worked again.  ED broke away from its pivot around 4:35 AM and never looked back, and so the market closed higher.  Tonight though, the Night Owl has come down with a cold and a sore throat.  One of my main rules is never to commit TWI (Trading While Ill) so we're just going to update the stats, call it a night and get some rest   We'll see how things look tomorrow.

The technicals


ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2052.83 to 2067.58. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      3      4       1           3       0.600    471

     And the winner is...

Taking a break.  With the Fed announcement Wednesday, I'd probably call the next two days uncertain anyway.

Single Stock Trader

On hold tonight.

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above it pivot, else lower.
  
• ES pivot 2052.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Resr of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ past the 50% point of the current move.

Recap

Well my call for Friday higher was just flat out wrong.  The Dow went nowhere but down and that was that despite a late afternoon rally that still gave us a triple digit loss.  So we pick up the pieces and move on to Monday for what promises to be another fun-filled week complete with Fed follies and triple-witching.

The technicals

The Dow: The Dow on Friday gave up half of Thursday's gains, unable to make any headway at all and ending up right back in its descending RTC.  That pretty much quashes what looked like a trend reversal as the stochastic is now threaded out.  Looks lower to me on Monday.

The VIX:  Similarly, the VIX which looked for all the world to me ready to move lower Friday instead went higher by 3.76%.  Though here, the indicators are still just only off overbought and look to have some downside momentum behind them so I'm not sure this inverted hammer means a move higher on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: AM EDT with ES up 0.11%  ES fared even worse than the Dow on Friday, retracing all of Thursday's gains before recovering maybe 1/3 to remain in a descending RTC that's now back to the beginning of March.  Interestingly, the overnight pin action so far is forming a nice hammer, so there may yet be some hope here for Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2056.25 to 2052.83. We're now below the new pivot, though not by much, so this indicator becomes bearish.

Dollar index:  Once again, the dollar just kept on steaming higher, up another 0.89% Friday.  I've given up saying how long it's been because it's right off the historical extent of what eSignal will serve up.  I hear it's like 12 years now.  Bottom line, there's still no end in sight.

Euro:  And of course similarly, the euro kept right on track on Friday for its appointment in Parityville, closing this time at 1.0472. its lowest level since the late Middle Ages.  My call for parity by the end of March remains on track - the station is just coming into view in the distance with less than five cents to go.

Transportation:  The trans looked particularly weak on Friday with a dark cloud cover for a 0.67% loss.  Though we're not yet overbought,this doesn't look good for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      3      4       1           2       0.556    471

     And the winner is...

The charts aren't looking too hot tonight but it's also Sunday night - the toughest call of the week.  And we're entering a triple-witching week.  And we've got a Fed announcement that will be even more closely watched than usual, all of which points to a tough week for forecasting.  I expect  some meandering ahead of the Fed followed by enhanced news-driven and op-ex volatility afterwards.  Should be interesting to say the least.

In the meantime, conditions look promising for another conditional call given the general uncertainty and the proximity of ES to its pivot.  So if ES can manage to break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.  And that's that, Jack.

Single Stock Trader

Bah - I pulled the plug on the current trade Friday at 47.92 and then watched VZ keep moving higher.  Oh well - I didn't want to be long over the weekend on a down Friday.  We still took home a decent profit of 64 cents for two days work.  While it doesn't look bearish right now, I wouldn't be getting on board here - I think the majority of the current move up is done.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher....
• ES pivot 2056.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ continues bullish

Recap

The technicals worked nicely Thursday with  some nice broad-based gains.  I'm running behind again tonight so this one will be quick.

The technicals

The Dow:  A nice gain Thursday confirming Wednesday's inverted hammer and bounce off the lower BB.  Looks higher Friday.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I say the VIX is lower Thursday".  And so it was, down 8.6% on a tall rd marubozu.  A bearish stochastic crossover now in place plus a rising RTC exit and falling indicators all point for more downside Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:24 AM EDT with ES up 0.07%  ES did well Thursday confirming the inverted hammer and forming a bullish stochastic crossover.  More upside possible Friday

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot finally rises from 2043.33 to 2056.25  But we're still above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  A rare decline here Thursday but on a green candle.  Rising RTC intact though.

Euro:  An even more rare gain for the euro, to 1.0599.  But the falling RTC here is also intact.

Transportation:  Wednesday's bullish divergence worked great with a 1.22% pop on Thursday.  A completed bullish stochastic crossover, a lower BB bounce, and a bullish falling RTC exit and that all spells more upside on Friday in my book.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      3      3       1           2       0.625    617

     And the winner is...

The charts tonight look generally pretty strong and Mr. Market seems to have recovered his mojo, so I'm just calling Friday higher.  That's all she wrote - see you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Our new long in VZ was rewarded nicely on Thursday with a 2.2% pop on noises of possible short-covering.  With a bullish stochastic crossover in place, a bullish RTC exit, indicators having bottomed but still not quite out of oversold, and increasing volume into the close this one looks continued bullish on Friday.  We're going to let it run.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher....
• ES pivot 2043.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ is a buy for the adventurous.

Recap

Things were looking pretty good for my call for a higher close Wednesday until one of those infamous late afternoon sell-offs torpedoed the whole deal.  But the damage was limited to just 28 Dow points.  The concept wasn't bad - big down day followed by a small move the next day - that makes it three pairs of these in a row now.  So where does that leave Thursday?  Let's check it out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow tried to recover from Tuesday's triple digit swoon and almost made it, but not quite.  Oh well.   We're still left with an inverted hammer on highly oversold indicators and a stochastic that's primed and ready for a bullish crossover.  This chart now looks like it's got more upside potential than downside risk.

The VIX:  The VIX sent some mixed messages on Wednesday, putting in a 1.08% bullish engulfing candle but also just touching its upper BB.  That BB is the third rail of the VIX.  The VIX rarely spends much time moving higher after hitting it  That thesis is supported by highly overbought indicators (RSI=93) and a stochastic just primed for a bearish crossover.  The trade was also just outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  All in all, I say the VIX is lower Thursday

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:36 AM EDT with ES up 0.23 %  On Wednesday ES traded almost entirely below the lower BB with an inverted hammer.  Indicators moved even lower into extreme oversold territory and the stochastic has just about fallen off the bottom of the chart.  This just has to be near a reversal in my book.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2053.75  to 2043.33. But that's enough to put ES back above the new pivot so this indicator is back to bullish.

Dollar index:  The incr3dible helium dollar just kept rising on Wednesday with a second gap-up candle in a row for another 1.16% gain.  The dollar is now clearly going exponential so a pullback has to be coming soon.  But for now it's still up, up and away!

Euro:  And of course the euro just kept going lower on Wednesday closing this time at 1.0535.  It was January 2003 the last time we saw this.  And of course the Parityville Express is still on track for an on-time arrival by the end of the month.  We're only five cents away now.  Given recent moves, that could be accomplished in a single day.

Transportation: IN a bit of bullish divergence, Dow Theory-wise, the trans advanced on a day the Dow declined a bit, up 1.12% with a green marubozu that formed a bullish stochastic crossover and exited the descending RTC for a bullish crossover after bouncing off its lower BB.  This one now looks higher for Thursday.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      2      3       1           2       0.571    357
     And the winner is...

We've now hit some pretty oversold levels and I'm seeing signs of bottoming, particularly in the VIX, the trans and the futures so I'm just going to go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ gained a bit on Wednesday with a green spinning top. and a stochastic that just eked out a bullish crossover.  We dont' yet have the descending RTC exit for confirmation but I'm blessing this one anyway as a buy.  I took a small position at 47.91 - not the best entry point of the day for sure, but I have other things to do than sit in front of a screen staring at VZ all day.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2053.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a buy in the next day or two.

Recap

Whoa!  I'm sure glad I called Tuesday lower because Mr. Market had a major snit and dumped 333 Dow points in a cascade that ended only because the bell finally rang at 4 PM in Wall St.'s equivalent of the Mercy Rule.  And all this because of the strength of the dollar, interest rate fears, phase of the moon, blah blah doesn't matter, all we need to do is pay attention to the charts.  So let's see how this sets us up for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow had its worst day since last October 9th with a 1.85% swan dive that plunged right through the lower BB with a giant angry red marubozu taking out two support line sin the process.  And even at that we're still not yet down to extreme oversold levels.  There's nothing on this chart to call a reversal right now.

The VIX: Bang zoom!  The VIX took off like a skyrocket Tuesday with a gap-up 10.82% pop to remain firmly in a steep rising RTC.  Indicators have now hit highly overbought levels but we've not yet hit the upper BB at 17.13.  We have a hanging man but that requires confirmation so I can't call this one lower yet.  I'll note though that VVIX punched up through its 200 day MA - not a good sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:37 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%   ES of course was pounded badly on Tuesday breaking key support at 2056 and continuing right on down through its lower BB.  But that has driven all the indicators quite oversold and the stochastic is finally starting to come around into position for an eventual bullish crossover.  And there's a hint of a rally in the overnight, though we've already seen that movie twice before in the past week - a leg down followed by a small bounce, lather rinse repeat.  But this time we're a lot more oversold than back then so the selling may be nearing the end.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot tanks from 2075.42 to 2053.75. And even after that massive dump, we're still below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar just keeps on its inexorable trend to infinity - and beyond with another 1% gap up on Tuesday.  We've now broken all 2009 resistance lines.  In fact, the dollar is now so high, I can't even scroll back far enough in eSignal to find the last time it was higher - the chart ends in 2007;  It does look like it's starting to go exponential though but there's no telling when the blow-off top will come.

Euro:  And of course the euro took another big hit Tuesday, closing this time down to 1.0698.  Less that seven cents left to Parityville.  At its current rate, we're still on track to pull into that station by the end of March.  Look out below!

Transportation:  Everything I wrote about the Dow applies here too.  Big downtrend, no reversal in sight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      2      2       1           2       0.667    385

     And the winner is...

The SPX Hi-Lo index at 31.5 is now down to levels from which previous reversals have come.  And all the charts are looking bearish with the exception of the VIX which is showing a reversal warning and ES which is making a non-trivial move higher in the overnight.  I never like to go against the futures and I think the current move lower may be getting a bit overdone.  It's possible we could get, if not an actual bottom, then something of a DCB on Wednesday so I'm going to go way out on the limb and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote of VZ, "I'm not quite ready to get back in just yet.".  Good thing too because VZ was down another 72 cents Tuesday in action that traded entirely under the lower BB.  This is starting to look like early last December so we're not getting back on this bus until we see some sign that it's going our way - and that isn't just yet. Still, I'll be watching this one intraday on Wednesday.  If it looks to be turning around and the rest of the market is up, I may hop on board for the quick swing.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
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• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2075.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a buy soon.

Recap

Bah - I blew Monday's call badly and what's worse I had a bunch of errands to run all day long and never really got a chance to play Stock Market.  I hate it when Real Life (TM) gets in the way of stock trading.  So I guess it's time for another Reader's Digest Condensed Night Owl - we cut right to the chase because that's all the time I have left tonight.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2079.92 to 2075.42.  We remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      1      2       1           2       0.600     52

     And the winner is...

Hard to say - the indicators are all oversold now but we remain in a downtrend and have yet to get a good reversal candle.  Monday's rally could be just a relief rally and I'm not liking the overnight ES action.  I do think we're close to an end of the week-long decline but I'm not sure it will be Tuesday.  So I'm going to stick to my guns and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I believe VZ is nearing a bottom now but I'm not quite ready to get back in just yet.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
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• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2079.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a buy soon.

Recap

Last Thursday I made a conditional call for the Dow based on ES's proximity to its pivot.  That worked very well on Friday with ES noodling about the pivot in the wee hours until breaking decisively below at 8:25 AM as the jobs numbers came out and that was that.  Mr. Market was not amused and down we went.  The question now becomes, after such a quick dump, where's the reversal?  We'll scout the charts for signs.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow started shedding points faster than than my German Shepherd sheds hairs in the opening minute.  And then it got worse.  Mercifully, the bell finally rang to put an end to the carnage, with a broad-based 279 point loss, giving up the 18 support like it wasn't even there.  .  That tall red marubozu took the indicators oversold though the stochastic has yet to begin forming a bullish crossover and the lower BB is still over 100 points away.

The VIX: I was a bit surprised to see the VIX up only 8.26% on Friday though it admittedly did blast right back up through its 200 day MA to remain in a rising RTC.  Indicators also rose and are now close to being overbought.  But not there yet which suggests that the VIX may have enough gas left in the tank to rise further on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:40 AM EDT with ES down 0.16%.  ES took a pounding on Friday to drive its indicators all oversold though the stochastic still hasnt' started curving back around for a bullish crossover.  And until I see that and a bullish reversal candle, this chart just looks ugly. And the overnight isnt' helping either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2098.83 to 2079.92.  We remain under the new pivot so this indicators is now plainly bearish.

Dollar index:  Holy moly - the dollar made a moon shot on Friday, up a whopping 1.26% with a gap up green marubozu that traded entirely above its upper BB.  And it is clearly going exponential now.  And we all know how that ends.  Every time.  So look for a break lower soon.  Maybe not Monday but sometime this week.

Euro:  Jeez - did I say the euro was going to parity in the fourth quarter?  Well judging by its action on Friday, down to 1.0849, it's looking more like by the end of this  month.  I'm not pulling these numbers out of thin air either.  I simply intersect the current regression trend channel with the 1.000 line and that's where it's landing now.  Remember back a few years ago when big rock starts were demanding to be paid in euros rather than dollars?  You don't hear much about that anymore do you?

Transportation:  And finally the trans got hammered just like everything else on Friday with a big red marubozu that sent its indicators oversold.  We're now near the lower BB so I think we may see a bottoming candle here soon, like in a day or two.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      1      1       1           2       0.750     87

     And the winner is...

We let a lot of hot air out of the market last week but I don't think we're quite done just yet basically based on a bevy of bearish charts so I'm just going to go ahead and call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I wrote of VZ "I don't think the selling's done yet here" and hey presto, boom, down we went 1.29% on a big gap down that closed under its lower BB and sent all the indicators oversold.   I have to admit that at 48.36 it's starting to look attractive again.  OTOH I'm also mindful of the old saying that you never buy a stock just because it's down.  So we wait for this falling knife to whizz by.  We will definitely miss the bottom, but we won't get all hacked up.

Friday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher only if ES stays above it pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2098.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ again still not a buy.

Recap

On Thursday the Dow kind of wandered all over the place but eventually ended with a modest 39 point gain, contrary to my expectations.  Oh well, no great loss, we simply move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite the Dow's 0.21%gain Thursday it sill constitutes a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  With the bearish stochastic crossover in full force and all the indicators falling off overbought I'm afraid I still dont' see the bull case here.

The VIX:  In retrospect, Thursday' 1.34% loss in the VIX was adequately telegraphed by Wednesdya' tall inverted hammer.  I did at least finally say last night "I'm not so sure about an advance here on Thursday."  So now we have a second long-legged doji, this one a gap-down.  The three candles make a bearish evening star so my guess is that we could see further losses on Friday.


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:19 AM EST with ES down 0.04% but NQ up 0.02%  ES did some retracing on Thursday and that was enough to curve the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover but we're not there yet.  I've not quite decided if Thursday's action was a reversal or a head fake, and there's little to go on in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2095.50 to 2098.83. That leaves ES sitting exactly on the pivot so this indicator tonight is neither bullish nor bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I refused to call the dollar lower despite having hit its upper BB.  Good thing too because it just motored higher Thursday, climbing that same upper BB in a seemingly unstoppable run to infinity - and beyond.  Same story tonight.

Euro:  The beleaguered euro just keeps going lower and lower., closing this time at 1.1028 its lowest close since the mid-Cretaceous period.  And still no end in sight.  Were the currency market not such a morass of Machiavellian manipulation, I'd be shorting it myself here.

Transportation:  Last night I noted a reversal warning here but added that it required confirmation.  I'm glad I did too because we got another 0.15% leg down with what at this point looks like a hammer.  Still, we remain in a downtrend so once again, we need confirmation of a reversal before calling this chart higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      1      1       1           1       0.667     87

     And the winner is...

With a bunch of employment numbers coming out Friday morning and ES sitting exactly on its pivot, this seems like the perfect time for a conditional call.  If ES can stay above its pivot by mid-morning Friday we close higher, but if it breaks below the pivot, we close lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

We were right at least that VZ was going lower Thursday.  In fact it now looks quite bearish with a break below the 200 day MA, a completed bearish stochastic crossover, indicators that have peaked but are still overbought, and a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  I don't think the selling's done yet here.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
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• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ again still not a buy.

Recap

Well we finally got the break I'd been waiting for for a week now as the Dow put in two non-trivial moves lower back-to-back.  Jobs numbers, the Blah Book, Netinyahoo (who is right, by the way), or whatever, it doesn't matter.  It's all baked into the charts, and that's why technical analysis works.  So let's take a quick peek in the oven and see what's cookin' for Thursday.  Yum!

The technicals

The Dow:  This was a big dump for the Dow, down 106 Wednesday for two black crows that leave us finally just barely off overbought.  But with support at 18,135 broken, the next line is 18K even and I expect to see that on Thursday.  I also note an exit of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote about the VIX, "I'd have to think the bottom is in".  And yup, it was, with a gap-up 2.67% jump on Wednesday.  But it was on a funny gravestone doji that pierced the 200 day MA before retreating.  200 day MA assaults can take several tries before succeeding so with indicators now just only off oversold I'd expect another stab at in on Thursday.  FWIW, we now have a bullish trigger on the falling RTC exit.  OTOH, these gravestone dojis are usually pretty good reversal signs, so now I'm not so sure about an advance here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:19 AM EST with ES up  0.05%  Wednesday's dump in ES was enough to finally drive the indicators oversold though the stochastic has yet to begin its characteristic curve around for a bullish crossover.  So I'd say a lot depends on the overnight pin action.  And indeed some support seems to be coming in making me wonder if the tail on Wednesday's candle was more hammer than hanging man.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2104.92 to 2095.50.  That drop now leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back bullish again.

Dollar index:  Well the dollar fooled me Wednesday.  I thought we had a sign it might go lower.  But at least I had the sense to require confirmation.  And it didn't come in a big way as we jumped 0.661% as the dollar powered on to highs not seen since March 2009.  We're hugging the upper BB now but any call lower remains problematic at this point and there's really nothing like that in the cards.

Euro:  Last night I wrote "We're back below 1.1200 and still on track, as far as I'm concerned for an express trip to Parityville".  Well with a break below support at 1.1153 on Wednesday and a close of 1.1075, not seen since September 2003, it looks like the track has been cleared all the way to our destination.  My current ETA is now somewhere in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Transportation:  The trans on Wednesday were a lot like the Dow, so that commentary applies here too.  But here we also got a stochastic close to forming a bullish crossover and a fat hammer than touched the lower BB.  That's a reversal warning, though one that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      1      0       1           1       1.000    106

     And the winner is...

Hmmm - I think we're nearing the point of a turn-around but the charts all look sufficiently bearish (with the lone exception of ES) that I'm going to just have to call Thursday lower again.  It's not the ideal pattern I'd like to see but it makes more sense than a call for higher.  We'll see.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote about VZ, "Still no buy here".  Good call too (as I pat myself on the back because if I don't, who will) as VZ completely gave up on pushing past 49.55 and instead returned to where it was seven days ago stopped only by - surprise - the 200 day MA.  But - the indicators remain stubbornly overbought and the stochastic actually only just completed a bearish crossover.  So like I tell my German Shepherd when we're out for a walk and she starts sniffing around a poop, "Leave it!".  I think VZ will be smelling a lot better in a few days.  (Ewww - did I really just write that?)

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy.

Recap

I thought something seemed fishy about this market last night so I  called Tuesday as uncertain instead of following the trend higher.  Good thing too because the Dow lost 85 points and was unable to push any higher at all. So what does this all mean for Wednesday?  We go to the charts as always for the answer.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a fat hanging man for a 0.47% loss.  It has apparently given up on the idea of hitting its upper BB at 18,377 and with indicators still overbought, it ain't looking good for the Dow.  Period.

The VIX:  With two black crows, I was vaguely guessing that the VIX might hit its lower BB Tuesday.  Bzzzt!  Instead it zoomed to ring the gong of its 200 day MA before retreating for a 6.29% gain.  It's still a bullish RCT exit and indicators are all rising off oversold now so I'd have to think the bottom is in.                                       
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:11 AM EST with ES down 0.07%  On Tuesday ES, gasping for air, gave up nearly all of Monday's attempt to crack the powerful line at 2114.  Not this time, ain't gonna happen.  And with all the indicators in a headlong rush off overbought to oversold, and the overnight guiding lower, this chart just looks lower Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2110.00  to 2104.92.  That puts us below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After tickling its upper BB for three straight days the dollar had enough on Tuesday losing 008% on a tall doji star despite what I thought.  That also curved the stochastic around for a bearish crossover so it looks like we have a decent reversal warning here, albeit one that requires confirmation.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro continued grasping at straws as it just blub blub blubs lower and lower on three consecutive doji stars.  We're back below 1.1200 and still on track, as far as I'm concerned for an express trip to Parityville.

Transportation:  It was a 0.49% loss for the trans on Tuesday with a red hanging man.  But oddly enough it was also a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit and we also got a stochastic curling around very near a bullish crossover.   So I'll take a wild guess that the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      0      0       1           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

Meh, I could be wrong, and Lord knows I am often enough, but things are looking just sufficiently bearish tonight for me to nervously declare Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ eked out a tiny gain on Tuesday but my topping thesis remains intact as this spinning top teetering on the edge of a rising RTC with overbought indicators demonstrates.  Still no buy here.

Tuesday unertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy.

Recap

Once again, the conditional called worked nicely with ES wandering about the pivot indecisively until the open at which point it busted through and never looked back - and we closed higher.  It doesn't always work but this time it did.  So after a nod to the Nasdaq for finally recapturing 5000 on Monday after 15 long years, let's move on to Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow had a monster opening day of March, up 156 points on a big green marubozu for another record close that totally quashed the previous negative outlook.  And with the upper BB now floating at 18,417, there's still  good deal of upside available here.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX put in a second lower red marubozu for a 2.25% loss to remain in a descending RTC.  No bullish turnaround signs here at all and the lower BB is way down to 12.09.  It's not out of the question we visit that level before moving higher.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EST with ES down 0.05%.  On Monday ES convincingly put the kaibosh on what was looking like a bearish pattern to bounce pout of a new descending RTC and form a bullish stochastic crossover form a high level.  Those are generally good for a day or two of further gains.  Note though that we are now hard up on week-long resistance, so I'm not too sure that will work this time.  And the overnight doesn't seem too enthusiastic about it at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2104.83  to 2110.00 even. But we remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar continued higher as it grips the upper BB like a mountain climber scaling an icy escarpment.  Three green candles and no signs of reversal from the indicators - looks like we're not done going higher.

Euro:  Last night I wrote "More downside is in store here".  And we went lower.  And the overnight is lower again.  And we're not done yet.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Monday with a bullish engulfing candle that exited their descending RTC fore a bullish setup and bent the stochastic around in anticipation of a bullish crossover.    Bottom line - this one just looks higher from here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      0      0       0           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

The theme lately has been for a pause after big one-day moves.  We don't have any outright bearish signs right now but I'm concerned about the shape ES is in.  Also we're not getting much direction from the indicators which are bumping up against extreme overbought levels, nor from the daily candles which have been wandering for four days now.    So breakout or fake-out?  Hard to say.  Too hard for me in fact so I'm just going to wimp out tonight and call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wasn't too keen on VZ and while it did eke out a tiny gain Monday, it still face strong resistance at 49.44.  Meanwhile the indicators remain overbought and the stochastic is ominously about to form a bearish crossover.  Don't buy here.

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2104.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ - nearing a short-term top.

Recap

The technicals worked nicely last Friday and we got the drop I was looking for. So with the miserable month of February out of the way, we turn our attention to March.  Will it roar in like a lion?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's hanging man with a r4ed marubozu that fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish trigger, completed a bearish stochastic crossover, and continued sending the indicators lower off overbought.  That all spells continued lower to me.

The VIX:  I didn't call Friday's VIX and it was just as well since it put in a red bearish engulfing marubozu centered on Thursday's inverted hammer.  That keeps us in a descending RTC so there are really no bullish signs here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.  ES had its worst day since February 9th on Friday with three down in a row marking a new downtrend.  But the Sunday overnight seems to have something else in mind making me cautious about calling Monday lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2108.75 to 2104.83.  But that still leaves us just above the new pivot so this indicator, for now anyway, turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar put in a green candle but still failed to break Thursday's high, touching its upper BB for the second day in a row.  Indicators are overbought , though not extremely.  That leaves this chart too tough for me.  Sorry.

Euro:  The euro on the other hand has clearly resumed its march to parity with a small red spinning top on Friday being non-confirmed in the Sunday overnight.  More downside is in store here.

Transportation:  With three black crows, the trans are now clearly in a downtrend.  Indicators all continue falling towards oversold so this chart continues to look bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   7      4       5           3       0.714    265

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is historically bullish but that hasn't been the case for March the past few years.  The charts are looking pretty bearish tonight but I always hate to go against the futures, particularly on a Sunday night, and when ES is drifting higher and has just crossed above its new pivot.  So meh, I'm going to do a conditional call: if ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher, and if it breaks back under and stays there, we close lower.  So sez I.

Single Stock Trader

VZ posted a small gain Friday but with three spinning tops in a row and overbought indicators, I'm looking for a pullback soon.  This wouldn't be a bad exit point and I'd not be entering long right now.