Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2055.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well I sure got fooled by April 1st last Friday.  Turns out that the historical tendency of the first trading day to rise trumped some pretty negative looking charts. Let's go now to those same charts to sort out this apparent discrepancy and figure out what it implies for Monday as we begin the first full week of April.


The technicals

The Dow:  Friday's green candle dwarfed Thursday's for a bullish engulfing pattern.  Resistance at 17,725 was smashed and the indicators all rose to extreme overbought.  Next resistance is at 17,889 and there's no bearish signs on this chart right now.

The VIX: The VIX popped higher Friday morning but it was all downhill from there as it ended with a tall red marubozu right back down to 13.10, its lowest close since last August 17th.  And even that was only enough to barely send the indicators oversold.  With support at 13.55 gone and the lower BB continuing to fall away, there are no bullish signs on this chart right now.  The only thing is a stochastic getting ready for a bullish crossover, but it's not there yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:27 AM EDT with ES up just 0.02%.  Last Friday ES laughed at Thursday's red spinning top and motored higher up to 2065, right on five month resistance.  The candle was a hanging man, the indicators have now gone overbought, and the new overnight is making no further headway raising the question of whether ES has the mojo needed to move higher again on Monday. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2052.83 to 2055.75. That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator changes back to bullish.

Dollar index:   On Friday the dollar confirmed Thursday's green hammer with a 0.04% gain on a tall green spinning top that sent the indicators all oversold.  After falling so far last week, this is a hint that there might be at least a little retracement in order on Monday

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continued raging higher on Friday making it five up in a row to close at 1.14165, its best close since last October 14th.  The indicators are all extremely overbought now and we also touched the upper BB on Friday before retreating on a green spinning top.  That's a reversal warning and yet the Sunday overnight shows no signs of caving just yet.

Transportation:  In a bit of bearish divergence, on Friday the trans closed down 071% ion a day the Dow was up 0.61%.  The result was a tall gap-down red hammer that successfully tested the 200 day MA. Indicators are wandering about between overbought and oversold so this chart is somewhat lacking in clarity

Accuracy: 
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      0      1       0           0       0.000    -108


     And the winner is...

With a bunch of charts at important S/R lines, overnight futures going nowhere, and it being Sunday night, this one is a tough call.  All these reversal signs require confirmation. so it looks like I'm just going to have to settle for calling Monday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2052.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last night I called the Dow lower for Thursday so you can imagine my consternation when I got up as usual at the crack of 11 AM only to find the Dow was going the wrong way.  It wandered about, but always above the flat line until right after lunch  Maybe what Mr. Market ate didn't agree with him but it was all downhill from there and we finally ended the day down 32.  That nonetheless leaves March as a stellar month indeed as the markets managed to regain all of their dismal losses YTD and then some.  So with that out of the way, let's see what April 1st has in store - no foolin'.  Only thing is that it's another Night Owl Lite night.  The Night Owl is just busy busy busy and there's only so much time and only one of me.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:13 AM EDT with ES down 0.17%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2055.50 to 2052.83. That again leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222


     And the winner is...

Basically  all the bearish reversal signs I noted on the charts last night were confirmed on Thursday and all the forces in play then are still there tonight.  The problem I have now is that the first of most months is historically bullish and that goes double for April.  So I may live to regret it but in the absence of any clear bullish signs tonight I'm going to have to call Friday lower.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market froecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2055.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

I called Wednesday as "uncertain" and so was not surprised to see the Dow gain another 84 points after having been up triple digits earlier in the day.  It might just as easily have gone the other way.  But at least we got a bit of clarity from the candles which we will now analyze as we move on to end the month and the quarter.

The technicals

The Dow:  What stands out about Wednesday's action in the Dow is the big gap-up inverted hammer that just missed touching the upper BB at 17,847.  Indicators have just fallen off overbought so I'm thinking there's a chance at least here of moving lower on Thursday.

The VIX: Well well - just when I thought the VIX couldn't go lower (last night), it did, breaking resistance at 13.80 to end down to 13.56 its lowest close since last August 17th, believe it or not.  But the candle was a lopsided doji star that set off a bearish stochastic crossover from a low level while leaving the indicators just off of oversold.  This is not a bad sign of a coming move higher.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:05 AM EDT with ES down 0.11%.  On Wednesday ES just touched its upper BB at 2065.51 before pulling back a bit for an inverted hammer.  With the new overnight running a bit lower, it looks good for a pullback.  I know, I said that last night too, but this time I mean it.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2038.67 to 2055.50. That leaves ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now flips to bearish

Dollar index:   Last night I wrote that it "looks like more downside to come."  And indeed it did, down another 0.34% on a gap-down red hammer.  That confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover but it also looks like a good bullish reversal sign with six-month support holding.

Euro:  And on Wednesday the euro also continued Tuesday's direction, up again to close at 1.13600 leaving it at six-month resistance, mirror-image to the dollar.  The new overnight's not making any headway so I wouldn't be surprised to see a move lower on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally the trans also gained a bit on Wednesday but underperformed the Dow with a gap-up gravestone doji,  This is a pretty decent warning of a move lower.  I scrolled back a bit and the trans are five for five on this pattern.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      7      6       6           1       0.571     190


     And the winner is...

With the overnight futures kinda petering out, the VIX at six-month lows and some nice reversal candles on the charts, things are looking sort of toppy tonight.  You might expect some end-of-quarter window dressing but that doesn't seem to happen that much in March.  So all things considered a bearish call seems more appropriate than bullish at this point.  Therefore I'm calling Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2029.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Things were looking good Tuesday morning for my conditional call.  ES was holding below its pivot after noodling around that level early in the wee hours.  Then suddenly, surprise!  Auntie Janet started going on about the economy this, interest rates that and it was all music to Mr. Market's ears.  The Dow took off and finished with a decent 98 point gain.  I think that had Janet not spoken on Tuesday, the market would have indeed closed lower.  But that's one of the words I've sworn I'd never use in this blog ("woulda") so it is what it is.  We retake out seat in the never-ending waiting room and look forward to the next bus.  That's just one of the occupational hazards of technical forecasting.

The technicals

The Dow:  After two nervous days of indecision, the Dow finally resolved to the upside after Ms. Yellen's comments on Tuesday with a 0.56% green candle that arrested the decline in the indicators and kept them just barely overbought.  I view it as a big bullish engulfing candle so more upside is not out of the question.

The VIX: Auntie J's effects were most pronounced in the VIX, which tumbled nearly 10% on Tuesday in a tall red marubozu, giving up both the 15 and 14 handles to end right back down to 13.82, matching the lows of last week.  So that's now support, but the upward movement of the indicators has revered just off oversold and the stochastic has made a quick flip to a bearish crossover.  I hesitate to infer too much from this action as with any sudden development.  Let's see how things play out on Wednesday first.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:35 AM EDT with ES up just 0.02%.  Even more than the Dow, ES just took off after the big news, ending back up to 2047.50, its best close of the year so far, and clearing resistance at 2044.  And even this big green candle wasn't enough to send the indicators back to overbought, though it did induce a new bullish stochastic crossover.  The new overnight does seem to be running out of steam a bit though so there's something od a question mark here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2029.92 to 2038.67.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar s might be expected took its biggest dive in two weeks on Tuesday after the big news, ending off 0.83% to kill a week-long rally for a bearish setup on a rising RTC exit.  It also formed a bearish stochastic crossover and sent the indicators lower before ever hitting overbought.  All looks like more downside to come.

Euro:  And just invert everything I wrote about the dollar for the euro.  It made a perfect mirror image so it looks higher on Wednesday.

Transportation: Perhaps the biggest beneficiaries of Ms. J's largess on Tuesday were the trans,, easily doubling the Dow's performance with a tall green candle that popped them right out of their week-long descending RTC for a bullish setup.  Indicators remain only halfway to oversold but everything else here now looks bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      7      6       5           1       0.571     190


     And the winner is...

The last two days of March are historically bearish according to The Stock Traders Almanac.  But with an "all clear" seemingly just sounded by the Fed and with no bearish signs to speak of on the charts tonight, it's possible the bull could run some more on Wednesday. However, these news-driven pops tend to distort the underlying picture so the charts have to be taken with a grain of salt.  With the overnight futures starting to sag a bit, I'm not all that convinced that there's much upside left here.  I'm afraid the best I can do right now is to call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2029.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Monday found the markets strangely becalmed.  After starting off the year with a seemingly endless series of wild triple digit swings, lately it feels more like the dog days of August than the middle of March.  Accordingly I'm going to do another Night Owl Lite tonight but this time it's not because I ran out of time.  It's just because I can't really find anything all that interesting to write about.  Let's just say that the charts are full of little dojis that don't amount to a hill o' beans and leave it at that.  Maybe we can figure out where Tuesday is headed anyway.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES up 0.69%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2023.67 to 2029.92.  That now leaves ES barely one point above its new pivot so this indicator is only nominally bullish at this point.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      7      5       5           1       0.615     190  

     And the winner is...

Well I thought after scouring the charts I'd be able to come up with a direction for Tuesday but I was wrong.  We've got indicators all mired halfway between overbought and oversold, and a  plethora of itty-bitty candles that don't really mean all that much.  Because of this abundance of indecision and the proximity of ES to its new pivot tonight, I'm going to do another conditional call: if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Tuesday we'll close higher.  On the other hand, if it falls below the pivot, we close lower.  So sez I.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2023.67.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Because of the holiday most of the usual charts are now three days old, ie. ancient history, so I'm going to skip the usual rundown tonight and instead just do a Night Owl Lite style post to start off the last week of March..

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EDT with ES up 0.30%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2033.08 to 2023.67. That's enough to leave ES above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      6      5       5           1       0.546     170



     And the winner is...

With a bunch of old charts on our hands, tonight we rely mainly on the futures.  Last Thursday ES put in a tall doji star and on Sunday night it seems to be confirming that.  Add in a doji from the Dow and a dark cloud cover in the VIX and I think I'll try calling Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday market closed.
• ES pivot 2033.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Foo.  Last night I called the Dow lower for Thursday, and while it did indeed plunge right out the gate, it then spent the rest of the day slowly cawing it way back up to break-even to end with a plus 13 point gain by the time the bell rang.  Now admittedly all that's damaged is my pride and since I'm always net long it helped the bottom line, but still...  Oh well, we update the stats and look forward to a day off.  See you again Sunday night!

The technicals

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      6      5       5           1       0.546     170

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2033.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last night the market was looking toppy to me and tonight it's clear that it did indeed top on Tuesday with the largest move (lower) in three days.  This is interesting on several fronts which we will now explore.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow finally fell out of a two week-long rising RTC for a bearish setup on an 80 point loss.  The indicators are all now clearly marching lower off of extreme overbought levels too  This is perhaps to be expected as the Dow is now about as far overextended above its 200 day MA as it's been in a year.  In any case with Wendesday's confirmation of two days' worth of reversal signs, this chart now looks plain bearish.

The VIX: Last night I noted a rising VIX and it just kept right on going Wednesday up another 5.43% as it continued to peell away from its lower BB with a green candle that marked a bullish setup on an exi5tt of a descending RTC.  Indicators are all now rising off an oversold bottom and the stochastic now has a clear bullish crossover   All that adds up to more upside in my book.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower again at 1:05 AM EDT with ES down 0.15%.  On Wednesday, ES confirmed Tuesday's tall doji star with a tall red candle back down to 2028.75.  That sent the indicators off overbought and gave us a fresh bearish stochastic crossover as well as a bearish setup on a descending RTC exit.  The new overnight is continuing lower for a bearish trigger.. That's just 100% bearish here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2049.58 to 2033.08. That places ES squarely below its new pivot so this indicator is now bearish.

US Dollar ($USDUPX), daily

Dollar index:   After a small gap up o Monday, the dolar posted a bigger gap up on Tuesday.  Then on Wednesday it just took off with a third gap up in a row to end up 0.44%.  This chart is worth a look (click to enlarge).  It now looks like a classic exponential runaway and with the indicators now all off oversold I think the dollar is due for some retracement Real Soon Now.

Euro:  And similarly the euro is now in a complementary downtrend with a steep descending RTC, all indicators falling offo overbought, a completed bearish stochastic crossover and no sign of stopping in the new overngiht.  That makes this chart look just plain bearish.

Transportation:  On Monday, the trans put in a doji star reversal warning.  On Tuesday that was confirmed with a small red andle below that.  And on Wednesday we got the payoff in the form of another 0.69% decline, underperforming the Dow's 0.45% loss.  With a new bearish stochastic crossover in place, indicators still overbought but clearly haing topped, and a new steep descending RTC, this chart just looks flat-out bearish tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      6      4       5           1       0.636     183



     And the winner is...

All the bearish forces we saw last night are still in play tonight only more so as the downward momentum continues building.  So I can't really make a case for a call of anything other than Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..