Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday \lower...
• ES pivot 2094.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ bottoming soon.

Recap

Well the conditional call last night simply did not work out.  ES broke over its pivot on Thursday but due to bad economic numbers, those freakin' Greeks, or whatever, we ended lower anyway.  It's still a good play, just not 100%.  So with that excitement out of the way, let's take a gander at op-ex Friday, always a good time.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow lost 44 points on a second hanging man in a row and one that closed outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup  We now have three hanging men in a row making me think Mr. Market is trying to tell us something.  And with indicators remaining overbought, it looks like what he's saying is that there's more downside to come.

The VIX:  In continuing divergence, on Thursday the VIX lost 1.04% on a day the Dow was also down.  It also caused a bearish RTC setup.  The overall gestalt of this chart makes it look like it just wants to move lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed once again just like last night at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.05% but NQ up 0.04%  ES is clearly having trouble advancing from these elevated levels with now three dojis in a row marking failed attempts to move higher.  RSI hit 98.61 on Thursday, the other indicators have actually begun to move lower, and we got a bearish trigger on the rising RTC exit.  The blah overnight suggests little appetite for any push higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2094.17 to 2094.00 even. After crossing the pivot multiple times on Thursday we're now just barely above the new number, so this indicator is slightly positive.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks vaguely bullish".  Turns out I could have been more assertive since the dollar gained a fair 0.25% on Thursday.  Now it was with a gap-up hanging man.  OTOH, we have a stochastic on the verge of a bullish crossover.  That all leaves this chart too tough to call once again.

Euro:  Last night I noted that the euro seemed to be congesting and wrote "I'm going to guess that the break when it comes will be lower.".  Well on Thursday, it was with the euro closing at 1.1368, its lowest lose in four days.  With three lower highs in a row now and indicators still a long way from oversold, I'd say the selling's not over here yet.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans put in a massive topping indicator in the form of a big gravestone doji that just touched their upper BB before closing right on the edge of the rising RTC, just short of a bearish setup.  We remain highly overbought so I'd have to say the next move is lower form here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      3       3           2       0.700    246

     And the winner is...

Friday is op-ex and historically bearish.  And I have to say the charts now seem to be leaning in that direction with the lone exception of the VIX.  However, the past two days the VIX has traded in direct correlation with the market - highly unusual.  So overall it looks like I have to call Friday lower.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "there's more downside to come here" about VZ.  And there was, down another percent as we gapped down under the 200 day MA.  That also took the indicators off overbought though we remain in a descending RTC.  I think we're nearing a short-term bottom here which would be a good buying opportunity.  But I need to see the reversal first.  So we continue to watch and wait.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower...
• ES pivot 2094.17.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving still lower.

Recap

Wow - Wednesday was pure scalper's heaven with Mr. Market bobbing up and down in a series of clearly defined intraday trends as the Fed minutes rippled through the Street.  But for swing trading, it was just a big dud.  I'm glad I called it uncertain as there was no way to figure out last night where this roller coaster was going to stop.  Now let's just see where this week ends up a we move on to Friday.

And oh, I almost forgot - last night was the Night Owl's fifth anniversary.  Five years continuous of my nightly rants.  Doesn't seem like a day over 10.

The technicals

The Dow:  If you just look at the final candle, on Wednesday the Dow handed us a little red hanging man significant only because that makes it two in a row now.  Back to back hanging men are always better than one.  So with a failure to advance past resistance and indicators remaining highly overbought, I have to think the next move is lower here.

The VIX:  How odd.  Tuesday we had the Dow and the VIX both up.  And on Wednesday they were both down - highly unusual.  And the VIX was down a good 2.22% for a bearish engulfing candle.  It's not really the evening star pattern I mentioned last night  but it looks bearish nonetheless.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:12 AM EST with ES down 0.06% but NQ up 0.04%  ES ended little changed on Wednesday but the candle was a tall dagger that traded outside a steep rising RTC.  Add in highly overbought indicators and that's a good reversal warning for me.  The overnight seems to be confirming that idea too.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2091.83 to 2094.17. That move leaves ES sitting smack dab on top of the new pivot so we have no guidance here.  Being bullish or bearish will depend on which side of the fence it falls on.

Dollar index:  On Wednesday the dollar gained 0.12% but on a red spinning top.  But it was enough to close outside its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  And with indicators close to oversold, this one looks vaguely bullish (though I'm not 100% convinced).

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continues to consolidate around 1.1400.  Nothing to see here until the break and no way to tell which way that may be.  >Shrug<  The indicators continue to rise though so I'm going to guess that the break when it comes will be lower.

Transportation:  In a bit of Dow Theoretic bullish divergence, on Wednesday the trans gained 0.40% to make their winning streak six in a row and remain in a rising RTC.  So with the upper BB way far at 9156 there's nothing bearish on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      2       3           2       0.778    246

     And the winner is...

The charts are sort of mixed tonight.  The VIX is looking lower, implying a higher market but the futures are guiding lower.  But with ES sitting right on its pivot that makes it a perfect time for another conditional call.  If ES breaks above its pivot by id-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If if breaks lower, we'll close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "I don't think the selling is over" and it indeed was not as VZ broke down through its 200 day MA to establish a new falling RTC.  With an MA break and indicators all now falling too, I'd say there's more downside to come here.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain..
• ES pivot 2091.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving lower.

Recap

Well Mr. Market sure got over his Greek existential malaise in a hurry.  We indeed opened lower in a big way on Tuesday (as I expected) but by the end of the day the Dow was actually up all of 28 points.  Go figure.  It's all Greek to me.  So let's forget about all this drama and move right on to the charts.  At least they always play it straight.

The technicals

The Dow:  It wasn't a big move higher but it did result in a tall hanging man teetering right on the edge of record territory.  And with the indicators still overbought one has to wonder how much gas is left in this tank.  We do have at least a reversal warning here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Tuesday."  (Well I wrote "Monday" but I meant Tuesday).  And the 200 day MA kicked right in sending the VIX bouncing with a gap up 7.56% star to form 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  But it was also enough to exit the descending RTC for a bullish setup, so this is a chart to watch on Wednesday.  With oversold indicators, the bull case seems to be stronger here.  It's an unusual divergence where the VIX and Dow were both up on the same day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:55 AM EST with ES up just one tick  On Tuesday ES continued creeping up its upper BB to remain in a steep rising RTC but with a hanging man.  Indicators remain quite overbought and the overnight is trading outside the RTC for a bearish setup - but is this a top?  Can't really tell, unfortunately.  And with the overnight flat, there's no help there.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a bit from 2090.00 even to 2091.83.  But that still leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  So much for last night's hammer.  The dollar lost another 0.14% on Tuesday to remain in a steep descending RTC with a lopsided spinning top.  And we're still not yet oversold.  So this is a reversal sign that requires confirmation and we sit this one out.

Euro:  After something of a bump last Thursday the euro has gotten bogged down again, this time around 1.1406, a level we've seen for four days in a row now.  And with indicators wandering about neither overbought nor oversold, there's little direction to this chart and indeed there has been none since we bottomed on January 26th.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans put in an unremarkable small spinning top.  Still not yet overbought not much to learn here.  I take a pass on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      2       2           2       0.778    246

     And the winner is...

The Dow is now hard up against all-time high resistance and its RSI has actually been falling for a week now while remaining overbought.  But all our reversal indicators are ones that require confirmation.  And on top of that we've got FOMC minutes on Wednesday.  And it's op-ex week.  To me, that all sounds like a good excuse to call Wednesday uncertain and live to trade another day.

Single Stock Trader

VZ indeed dropped right back to its 200 day MA on Tuesday.  Will this provide support?  It didn't the last two times we were here and we were a lot less overbought back then than now.  So I don't think the selling is over and I'm not yet looking to buy in again.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower..
• ES pivot 2090.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Yaaawn!  Is this three day weekend finally over?  Time to wake up and get back to the markets I guess.  Though I have to admit I kind of enjoyed a three day break.  That makes me consider that there's no holiday in March.  But the evil major corporation I sued to work for offered something called "floating holidays".  You got a day off and could pick which day to use it on.  So I see no reason not to be at least as generous with myself as those cheapskates.  So I'm declaring Monday March 16th to be Night Owl Day.  There will be no Night Owl the Sunday night before the 16th.  One of the nice things about being your own boss.

Uh, so anyway, let's see where this new holiday shortened week might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday the Dow gained 47 points on a small green candle that nonetheless continued closing in on its upper BB.  Indicators are now overbought   but not so much that touching the BB on Tuesday  is out of the question.

The VIX:  And also back in ancient history, the VIX on Friday gapped down another 4.24% to come within a hair of its 2200 day MA at 14.62.  We're still fairly oversold but the last time we were in a similar situation, the VIX bounced right off the MA and moved higher.  So I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: AM EST with ES down 0.47%  ES had another good day last Friday with a record close that again touched its upper BB.  But we're pretty overbought by now  and ES may be wanting to rest a spell.  In any case, the new overnight is forming a bearish harami.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2076.00 to 2090.00. That plus the overnight drop in ES now puts it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After a big drop last Thursday the dollar found some support Friday with a small hammer.  But the stochastic rolled over big time for a bearish crossover.  That leaves this chart sort of a toss-up but overall it looks more negative to me.

Euro:  And so the euro on Friday produced a mirror image inverted hammer on Friday.  We do have some realtime action Sunday night for this and it's very negative, off half a percent.  That makes a lower close Tuesday look likely.

Transportation:  And the trans made it four in a row with a quarter percent gain on Friday that leaves the indicators just short of overbought and still in a rising RTC.  So in the absence of any bearish signs, this one looks higher again Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      1       2           2       0.875    273

     And the winner is...

It's op-ex week once again with all the lunacy that implies.  And the first day after Valentine's Day is historically quite bearish.  Tonight the charts and the new overnight both seem to be confirming that so I'm just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is another issue that touched its 200 day MA on Friday and the bounced off with a doji.  But we're still quite overbought and we have a rising RTC exit so I'd definitely not be going long here.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher..
• ES pivot 2076.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Last night I said that if ES managed to break above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday we'd close higher.  Well ES made three charges at the pivot, at 2:10 AM, 3 AM and 3:40 AM.  And the third time was the charm as ES took off and never looked back.  And we did indeed close higher.  That just leaves one more day to round out the week so let's take a look at the charts.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 110 point advance on Thursday negated Wednesday's doji amid rising volume and handily broke through resistance at 17,889 for its best close YTD.  While we're now oversold, the proximity of the upper BB at 18,069 makes me think the Dow's going to want to take a sniff of that number on Friday.

The VIX:  Well whadaya know about that.  Last night I wrote "there could be more downside here on Thursday" and the VIX obligingly fell nearly 10% on a gap-down red marubozu that leaves us within sneezing distance of the 200 day MA at 14.51.  The momentum is clearly down at this point so I'm going to hazard that the VIX takes a peek at the MA on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly higher at 1:11 AM EST with ES up 0.04%  ES had a nice gain Thursday, just touching its upper BB at the close.  But that also leaves us right on the edge of the rising RTC and also pretty overbought.  That makes me think it might be time for some sort of retracement.  But so far at least, ES doesn't seem interested in moving lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2066.17 to 2076.00. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I noted some strong resistance for the dollar and that proved to be simply too much to overcome so we ended down nearly a full percent.  That move was enough to form a new bearish stochastic crossover and drop us out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  It all adds up to continued lower on Friday

Euro:  Well the euro managed a small gain on Thursday but it remains mired in its recent congestion zone of 1.1281 to 1.1500.  So there's nothing to say here until we see a breakout and there's no way to tell which way it will be.  If I were trading the euro right now ... I wouldn't.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "the trans might still have enough gas in the tank to motor higher on Thursday" and it turned out they had a secret extra reserve tank that was good for another .078% to easily clear resistance at 8971.  With this big green marubozu on the tape, there's nothing bearish at all here unless we encounter some typical Friday profit-taking.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       2           2       0.857    226

     And the winner is...

The charts are pretty uniformly bullish tonight so despite the fact that the Friday before the President's Birthday (ie. Washington's Birthday) holiday is historically pretty bearish, it's not clear that will be the case this year.  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Monday night!

Single Stock Trader

Huh - VZ finally put in a red candle in the form of a dark cloud cove.r  I'd look for mor edownside here.  Eventually we'll find another buying opportunity.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower..
• ES pivot 2066.17.  Breaking above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

Last night I called Thursday as uncertina saying that "it could be a doji day"..  And that's exactly what it was with the Dow down 7 points and the SPX down all of 0.06 points.  I think we also got some of the clarity I ws looking for so let's get right to it.

[Note: the Blogspot spell checker is on one of its periodic strikes, so I apologize in advance for any typos.]

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a tall doji right on the upper end of Tuesday's gains.  The indicators moved even more overbought and I take this failure to advance a a bearish sign.

The VIX:  I also wrote last night that "[a bunch of mumbo-jumbo] makes this chart bearish, despite being oversold.".  Right again, as the VIX fell another 1.57% Wednesday completing the bearish evening star.  But there's no reversal sign yet so it's not out of the question that there could be more downside here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:40 AM EST with ES down 0.05% but YM up 0.02%.  Call it basically flat.  Last night I wrote that "I think ES might want to have a look at [the upper BB] on Wednesday" and that's just what happened with ES just touching the upper BB before falling back to form a nice doji.  The new overnight took a big pop right asfter the close but then gave it all back leaving us with a fat red hanging man, though it's started drifting slowly higher in the late evening.  We'll have to see now if it has the requisite mojo to bust through its pivot.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2056.42 to 2066.17.  That was enough to just put ES below the new pivot but it seems interested in mounting an attack on it as I write.  So it's bearish now but only weakly so.

Dollar index:  The dollar was too tough for me last night but ended putting in a decent 0.25% gain on Wednesday, right back to month-long resistance.

Euro:  I also couldn't call the euro last night and it's not surprising given that the euro has been putting in tiny little spinning tops for three days now, seemingly stuck around 1.1321.  We're oversold but it's looking like an evening breakout attempt has failed leaving us right back where we started.  Given this lack of direction, still no call here.

Transportation:  The trans rose 0.28% Wednesday in a bit of bullish divergence.  But the inverted hammer, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic ccrossover suggest lower to come.  Rising indicators not yet overbought and a rising RTC all suggest the trans might still have enough gas in the tank to motor higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       2           1       0.833    226

     And the winner is...

With ES so close to its new pivot and looking like it's serious about trying to break through in the early morning hours, tonight looks like another good choice to do a conditional call.  If ES can break above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If not, we'll close lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ extended its gains Wednesday.  While it's annoying to see the bus pull away without you on board, well just wait for it to come back.  There's no law that says you have to trade.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2056.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

My conditional call for Tuesday worked perfectly.  Just look at the ES chart.  It dropped back below the pivot at 3.35AM but then fought back up above for a positive open.  Then it made one brief stab at the pivot \right at 10:45 AM but that failed and it was up up and away from there.  As I say, the conditional call doesn't always work but it works often enough to be useful.  So now we move on to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night pretty much all the technicals were wrong.  I kind of had that idea in mind when I made it a conditional call.  In any case, the Dow had a nice 0.79% pop to more than retrace Monday's losses and approach YTD resistance.  But that still leaves us overbought and with a stochastic more likely to form a bearish crossover than anything.  So I just have to abstain from this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Silly me - I said the VIX was going higher on Tuesday in the face of 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  Wel that star was out in full force Tuesday with a 7.12% gap-down drop in the VIX to complete this pattern.  That makes this chart bearish, despite being oversold.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:42 AM EST with ES down 0.11%  ES had a very nice day Tuesday making back two days worth of losses and breaking resistance at 2057.  We're now officially overbought but with the upper BB at 2077.29 and will being in a rising RTC I think ES might want to have a look at that number on Wednesday though ES certainly isn't showing much enthusiasm for that idea in the late night hours.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2043.58 to 2056.42. That still leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is still bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar posted a 0.29% gain on an unusual red hanging man.  With indicators still not yet overbought there's enough uncertainty here to keep me from making a call.

Euro:  The euro fell just a bit on Tuesday on a nice little star.  With indicators nearly oversold that seems to imply some bottom formation and our current level around 1.13 is indeed a support line.  But we also have a bearish RTC trigger so this chart isn't clear at all.  Hey, sometimes that happens.

Transportation:  And finally the trans defied my predictions to gain a healthy 0.86% on Tuesday with a nearly bullish engulfing pattern to retrace all of Monday's losses and keep us overbought.  We're still outside the last rising RTC though so technically that's a bearish trigger.  We'll see.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       1           1       0.833    226

     And the winner is...

The market is at something of a crossroads right now.  The charts in general look fairly bullish but they're near key resistance lines.  It also seems that the recent rally has largely been fueled by oil, and right now oil seems to be running out of gas (sorry, couldn't resist).  I think the next move is going to be lower, I'm just not sure if that will be on Wednesday.  It could be a doji day.  So on that note I will just have to call Wednesday uncertain.  Wednesday should provide more clarity.

Single Stock Trader

The 200 day MA acted as support for VZ and it gained even more on Tuesday.  But we remain highly overbought and I'm just going to wait for the next pullback to buy in again.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES stays above pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2055.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy here..

Recap

My hunch last night about a lower market Monday came to pass with a 95 point tumble in the Dow, based on Greece, the Ukraine, whatever, doesn't matter.  The point is that all this news is generally baked into the charts so let's see what they have to say now for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "this one looks bearish for Monday." and on Monday the Dow confirmed Friday's red spinning top to fallout of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Note too that that now leaves us with a down Friday followed by a down Monday - a bearish sign in its own right.  RSI remains overbought and the stochastic just formed a bearish crossover so I have to guess we're going lower again on Tuesday.

The VIX:  Lat night I wrote "this one look[s] higher Monday". and how about that, the VIX jumped 7.29% on a big gap up albeit red candle.  Sorta looks like an evening star now.  But it does give us an RTC bullish trigger and a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd have to vote for more upside on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly higher at 12:14 AM EST with ES up  0.09%  On Monday, ES confirmed last Friday's spinning top as I wrote "this chart looks bearish now'.  And with RSI still overbought and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover, and the overnight trading outside the rising RTC for a bearish crossover it still looks bearish to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2055.17 to 2043.58. That, finally, is enough to put ES back above its new pivot, though just barely, but it does turn this indicator bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar perhaps understandably gave back about a quarter of Friday's gains losing 0.29%.  That left the indicators confused - RSI and momentum falling but the stochastic rising.  With none of them at extreme levels, this dark cloud cover needs confirmation, though I have to say my guess would be bearish here.

Euro:  After Friday's big bearish engulfing candle negated all of Thursday's gains, the euro managed a small gain Monday for a little green spinning top that looks more like a DCB than anything else.  It does make last week's rally attempt look more like a fake-out than anything else.  With indicators continuing to fall but not yet oversold, I have to think we haven't seen the bottom of the current move yet.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans did what the Dow did, only moreso, so my comments there apply here too.  Looks bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   3      1       1           0       0.750     86

     And the winner is...

Hmm - well ya know, all the charts look bearish tonight with the lone exception of the futures breaking above their pivot.  I will also note that oil appears to have bottomed (no I don't think this is a "head fake" as has been bandied about - we have a solid weekly descending RTC exit that strongly suggests the downtrend is over.)  But I'm going to play this one conservatively - given the proximity of ES to its pivot it seems like a good time for a conditional call: if ES manages to stay above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  If it galls back under, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ was indeed unable to extend Friday's gains.  This spinning top looks bearish to me.  IT's still not a buy here.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2055.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy here..

Recap

After rising strongly three of the last four, Friday's action wasn't a sure thing so I called it "uncertain".  Which is jsut as well since we finished with a small red spinning top.  But this in its own way changed the picture so let's get to the charts to see how that helps call Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow just touched its upper BB and it was like the third rail - it was all downhill after that.  The resulting candle left us overbought with a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  All in all, that means this one looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  After a gap down Thursday, the VIX gained 2.61% on Friday on a tall inverted hammer that was big enough to curl the stochastic around to line up for a bullish crossover and provide a descending RTC exit for a bullish setup.  That makes this one look higher Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.34%  On Friday ES put in a classic red spinning top that just touched its upper BB - a pretty decent reversal warning which the overnight seems to be confirming.  With indicators back to overbought  I'd say this chart looks bearish now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2044.83 to 2055.17.  But that move plus the overnight skid in ES now leaves it below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar put a convincing end to its recent slide on Friday with a monster 1.19% skyrocket that exploded it out of its descending RTC and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  That changes the picture and the dollar now looks higher.

Euro:  And of course as the dollar rose, the euro fell, right back to 1.1323, a level it's been at for nine of the past 10 days.  The red marubozu formed a bearish engulfing pattern that just fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Along with a bearish stochastic crossover, this one now looks plainly bearish for Monday.

Transportation:  Though not quite as overbought as the Dow on Friday the trans gave us a near bearish dark cloud cover with a red spinning top and a stochastic flattening out before a bearish crossover.  So this one looks more bearish than anything on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     -9

     And the winner is...

I know I've been burned a couple of times recently doing this but by gosh the technicals do look bearish for Monday so I have no choice but to call Monday lower.  Being net long, I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

VZ took a big and unexpected (by me anyway) gap up on Friday to break above its 200 day MA.  But it's now highly overbought and on the verge of a bearish stochastic crossover.  So while I'm sorry I missed this particular bus I don't think right now is the time to hop aboard.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2044.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Another night where time has caught up with me so another abbreviated Night Owl.  The research is done but the text (which does take a while to put together) is condensed.

The technicals

The Dow:  A strong and surprising gain here.  Not yet overbought but near the upper BB so probably a bit more upside left but not much.

The VIX:  Last night's uncertainty resolved to the downside.  Still not oversold so more downside left here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 16 AM EST with ES down 0.06%  ES put in a big bullish engulfing candle Thursday but stopped right on resistance at 2056.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2034.00 to 2044.83.  Tonight we remain above the new pivot so this indicator switches back to bullish.  This pattern now looks toppy to me.

Dollar index:  Half a percent dump on Thursday plus oversold indicators plus a stochastic near a bullish crossover but without a reversal candle, still can't call this one higher yet.

Euro:  xxx

Transportation:  No reversal here either.  Star was non-confirmed with a decent gain.  No resistance hear and indicators continue rising but not overbought so now looks bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     -9

     And the winner is...

I think a move lower is coming soon but it requires confirmation - the same thing I was saying last night.  Only this time I mean it.  So I'm just going to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Inverted hammer, hanging man, overbought - still looks toppy to me - not an entry here.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2034.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

The roller coaster ride continued Wednesday as we were up 100 and then down 60 and in the end the Dow finished all of 7 points higher.  Crazy stuff.  So let's see how this changes the charts as we look forward to Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  After all the sturm und drang was over, the Dow ended just about where it started Wednesday, forming a perfect doji and in evening star position.  With indicators now approaching overbought this is a reversal warning worth heeding.

The VIX:  Ya, the VIX got me Wednesday.  Instead of continuing lower, it gained 5.77% on a green hammer.  But the indicators are wandering.  RSI and momentum were higher but the stochastic continued lower.  This one is too tough to call tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EST with ES down 0.15%.  ES gave up ground on Wednesday with as fat red spinning top on a vaguely dark cloud cover candle.  But the indicators remain confused with momentum and OBV moving lower but RSI and money flow moving higher and none of them at either extreme.  That all leaves this chart a conundrum.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2031.00 to 2034.00.  But now we're below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night's bearish stochastic crossover is coming to an end as on Wednesday the dollar ended gaining 0.47% on a bullish harami making me wonder if that's all there was to this recent pullback.  And all the indicators have started rising off oversold.  So the next logical move is higher.

Euro:  And the euro put in a hanging man on Wednesday giving up a quarter of Tuesday's gains. and forming a bearish stochastic crossover.  That all looks bad and indeed the overnight is already gapping down 0.57% making a lower close look likely on Thursday.

Transportation:  Like the Dow, the trans put in their own star Wednesday implying a possible reversal here too.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      0       1           0       1.000    203

     And the winner is...

The charts are being particularly opaque tonight.  We have some topping warnings but they all require confirmation.  I'm revising this post to call Thursday lower, mostly on Greek ECB fallout  And I'm still not going long from right here.

Single Stock Trader

VZ also put in a topping star on Wednesday making me think I was right to exit on Tuesday.  I left a bit of money on the table but the alternative would be to sit in front of my computer all day waiting for the top and I just have too much other stuff to do for that.  That becomes day trading, not swing trading.  Anyway, I'm expecting a move lower from here.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2031.00.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ trade finished, +1.3 points.

Recap

Last night I let myself get scared away from making a bullish call largely on the basis of some sagging futures, opting instead for a wimpy cop-out of "uncertain".  Lesson learned as the Dow shot up over 300 points on Tuesday.  So the roller coaster ride goes on and on.  Which way will we wend on Wednesday?  The charts hold the wanswer.

The technicals

The Dow:  I got this much spot on last night when I wrote "I have to vote higher from here on Tuesday.".  And that was the winning vote with a 1.76% jump in the Dow.  That was also a bullish RTC trigger, a completed bullish stochastic crossover, and it sent all the indicators rising off oversold.  So nothing bearish here tonight.

The VIX:  And last night I also wrote "[a lot of technical mumbo jumbo] spells lower in my book".  And it was a good spelling lesson as the VIX dumped nearly 11% on Tuesday to fall out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, form a new bearish stochastic crossover and send all the indicators scurrying lower.  I think there's still more downside available from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12: 16 AM EST with ES down 0.07% but YM up 0.05%.  ES had a great day Tuesday.  But after all the recent turbulence, we're still just right back where we were a week ago.  The momentum is clearly higher at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2003.08 to 2031.00. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "dollar looks lower again from here".  And so on Tuesday it gapped down for a huge 1.06% loss and a bearish RTC trigger.  And a bearish stochastic crossover.  RSI just went oversold but I don't think that's enough to save the dollar just yet.

Euro:  Last night I was uber-cautious on the euro, claiming only that "I think there's enough gas in the tank for a move higher".  Well that tank was brimming full with the euro powering to a 1.1491 close Tuesday.  That was also good for a bullish setup on a long-running (12/17/14) descending RTC exit.  It also drove RTC overbought but the other indicators aren't quite there yet so it's not impossible we go higher again on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans pretty much mirrored the Dow on Tuesday so all of my comments there apply here too.  It's looking bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   1      0       1           0       1.000    196

     And the winner is...

After two strong days the temptation is to call for a pause but with the VIX back under 20 and no real bullish signs about, I guess I just have to go ahead and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With a nice pop in VZ on Tuesday I unloaded it at 47.79.  Verizon has now just paid me for a month and a half of their service, nyah nyah.  VZ might go even higher on Wednesday, or it might not.  Either way, we now sit back and await the next entry point.  It's a swing trade, not part of my retirement portfolio (though it would be a great component for that too).

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2003.08.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ in an uptrend.

Recap

Well history came to the rescue on Monday as the first day of February made it 11 out of 13 now with the Dow up a healthy 196 points.  But just looking at the daily candles makes one wonder if Mr. Market hasn't gone totally schizo.  With four down-up-down-up days in a row, which way will Tuesday go?  Uh ... down?  Let's check the charts to be sure.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite the easy conclusion that since we were up on Monday we should go down on Tuesday, the stochastic has given us a good bullish crossover and we've now exited the descending RT for a bullish trigger.  So I have to vote higher from here on Tuesday.

The VIX:  Last night's spinning top was confirmed on Monday with the VIX losing 7.34% on a big inverted hammer that just tickled the upper BB and curved the stochastic around very close to a bearish crossover.  That spells lower in my book.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:14 AM EST with ES down 0.42%.  ES, like the Dow, has been bouncing around like a pinball lately between 1990 and 2018.  We're now at the upper end of that range.  The difference is that this time the indicators are a lot more oversold than they were before, effectively putting more oomph behind the chart.  Ahh but there's that resistance at 2018 to get by and it doesn't look like ES is too interested in testing it at least not yet in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1998.42 to 2003.08. That still leaves us about five points above the new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I was loathe to call the dollar lower just because that's been a losing proposition for, uh, a long time now.  Nevertheless, the dollar did in fact drop 0.28% on Monday, confirming two spinning tops in a row.  That's also a bearish setup on an exit of the latest short rising RTC so all other things being equal the dollar looks lower again from here.

Euro:  Last night I noted that when the break comes "it should be higher".  I don't know if it was exactly a break but the euro did advance on Monday to close right on resistance at 1.1350.  Indicators are all now clearly rising off oversold and we've got three days of higher lows.  However with this resistance, Tuesday is make or break for the euro.  I think there's enough gas in the tank for a move higher, but I'm just not that certain.

Transportation:  The trans are also in good shape after a nice 1.44% gain Monday.  After bouncing off their lower BB we're now clearly oversold with a stochastic just about to form a bullish crossover.  This one looks to have more upside potential than downside risk to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   1      0       0           0       1.000    196

     And the winner is...

The charts generally look pretty bullish tonight with the lone exception of the futures which are all lower by non-trivial amounts.  Also of concern is this crazy down-up-down-up daily action and the fact that we've been putting in lower highs for three days now.  On the other hand, recall that last night I wrote "Dr. Copper looks like he might be getting ready for a move higher" and whadaya know, the $ISC rose nearly 2% on Tuesday.  So to my mind that all just adds up to a great big nothing and therefore I call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I declared VZ a buy and ka-ching, it paid off nicely on Monday.  The faint of heart might want to bail here, but I think this trade isn't done yet.  Disclaimer: I am now long VZ at 46.47.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 1998.42.  Holding below is bearish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ buy signal.

Recap

Wow -that was interesting.  On Friday we closed exactly 26 points lower than Wednesday - after three days of 200 points plus swings.  I'm glad I called it uncertain because I sure wasn't expecting a 252 point dive from the Dow.  Let's now move on and make some sense out of these wild swings as we move on to Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  What we have here is a fairly rare bullish stick sandwich.  Friday's low was a bit below the previous two days but I think it still qualifies.  Indicators are nearly oversold now and the stochastic is about to form a bullish crossover so this chart looks bullish despite the scary 1.45% plunge last Friday.

The VIX:  So much for the dark cloud cover - on Friday the VIX jumped nearly 12% but did it with a green spinning top that left he left side of its rising RTC, both moves that tend to presage the end of an uptrend.  We're not yet overbought though  and no sign of a bearish stochastic crossover so this is a chart that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EST with ES up 0.15%  Last Friday ES gave us a stick sandwich just like the Dow's.  Only it's even closed to a reversal with oversold indicators, rising OBV, and a curvy stochastic about to throw a bullish crossover.  A non-trivial gain in the overnight supports that idea.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2006.83 to 1998.42. We're still below the new pivot so this indicator is now bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar on Friday went nowhere, down just 001% with a second spinning top in a row  But none of that matters until we see a decisive break and that's yet to happen.  So calling the dollar lower is still premature here.

Euro:  The euro meanwhile continues its consolidation around 1.1314 in something that if you squint hard enough looks like a symmetrical triangle.  If it is, the break should be coming any day now, and it should be higher (yikes - did I just call the euro higher?)

Transportation:  On Friday the trans just got hammered, down 2.28% to close right on support at 8649.  That move left the indicators close to oversold and the stochastic getting ready to move around for a bullish crossover (though not quite).  This chart says a reversal is near, but not exactly when.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627

     And the winner is...

We're seeing some signs of a move higher in the charts tonight but mostly they require confirmation.  Something of the sort might come from the SPX Hi-Lo index which bottomed on Thursday and actually moved higher on Friday.  That's often a sign of a market bottom.  Also Dr. Copper looks like he might be getting ready for a move higher.  And let's not forget the Monday is the start of February, historically quite a bullish day.  So I'm going to go with that and just call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ surprised me with an inverted hammer and a loss on Friday having gotten caught up in the same funk that took down all but one Dow component. It's sitting on good support and its lower BB right now.  I hate to say it but it still looks like a buy to me.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2006.83.  Holding above is bullish
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ buy signal.

Recap

Arrgh - are we back to this again?  Tuesday I called Wednesday higher, so we went lower.  Wednesday I called Thursday lower, so naturally we went higher.  It's a conspiracy by Mr. Market to drive me crazy.

The technicals

The Dow:  A bullish engulfing candle on Thursday that bounced off the lower BB and sent the indicators higher before even reaching oversold hints at more upside on Friday.

The VIX:  Unable to push higher after a big gain Wednesday, the VIX made a dark cloud cover Thursday but remains in a rising RTC with indicators wandering between oversold and overbought.  Another tough call.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12: 22AM EST with ES down 0.27% but NQ up 0.08%.  ES retraced over half of Wednesday's losses on Thursday but seems to be running out of gas in the new overnight.  RSI and OBV are going down but momentum and money flow are moving higher, and none are either overbought or oversold.  This one is too tough to call.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2009.75 to 2006.83.  But now we're back above the new pivot so this indicators turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  After a brief three day stumble the dollar is back on track and pushing higher again.  Thursday's gap-up spinning top looks like a head fake to me.

Euro:  The euro seems to be consolidating around 1.1310 but we've seen this before.  It's still too early to dump those euro shorts.

Transportation:  A nice hammer Thursday at the bottom of Wednesday's big drop signals a possible reversal here but one which requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       3           1       0.563    627

     And the winner is...

We're getting a lot of mixed messages tonight.  While the last day of January is typically bullish, this January has not been typical and the futures don't seem to be on board.  So I'm just going to play another waffle card and call Friday uncertain.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ put in a nice hammer that pierced its lower BB and exited its descending RTC for a bullish setup. It's now highly oversold and the stochastic is real close to a bullish crossover.  There's now enough in place for me to call it a buy at 46.11

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2009.75.  Holding below is bearish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

Holy moly!  Things sure went south in a hurry on Wednesday.  I was confident enough Tuesday night to call Wednesday higher in the face of a Fed announcement, and as usual every time I go against my rule of calling such days as uncertain, I got my head handed to me.  Ouch.  Oh well.  We live to trade another day.  And that would be Thursday so let's see what's cooking there.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow actuallty ws positive most of the day until it fell off a cliff int e final hour Wednesday to end down nearly 200 points.  In any case we blasted right through support at 17,315 like buttah, stopped only by the lower BB at 17,198.  And now the 200 day MA at 17,045 is within easy one-day striking distance.  Our next support line is oddly enough right at the same spot.  Indicators continue falling but are not yet oversold and the stochastic is in full-on bearish mode.  So there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Zoomo!  So much for what looked like an incipient bearish evening star last night.  It turned into jolly green giant marubozu on Wednesday up a whopping 18.90%.  That was good for a bullish setup on a bearish RTC and a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  With indicators now smartly coming off oversold, this chart just looks flat-out bullish.  Oof!

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EST with ES up  0.20%  ES had its worst day since, uh, let me scroll back here, uh well let's just say quite a long time on Wednesday giving up the 2K mark and tumbling to 1991.50.  The lower BB is not too far off and the 200 day MA is just beyond that.  And amazingly, we're still not yet oversold.  So there's nothing technically bullish on this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2032.67 to 2009.75. And even that massive plunge wasn't enough to put ES back above the new pivot so this indicators is now distinctly bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wouldn't commit to a move lower on the dollar which was just as well since it resumed it's climb to the stratosphere on Wednesday.  Forget everything I said about a dollar topping - we ain't done yet.

Euro:  And of course that means the euro put a quick end to its two day rally with a bearish dark cloud cover Wednesday.  Looks like we're right back to the old march to zero here.  The negative overnight pin action supports that idea.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "this chart looks continued bearish" and was it ever, down another 1.46% on Wednesday leaving us in a steep descending RTC with the indicators all falling off overbought.  This one still looks outright bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      5       3           1       0.643     852

     And the winner is...

Wednesday's action did a lot to take the charts closer to a reversal point but it doesn't look like we're quite there yet.  And yet with the Dow sitting on its lower BB and ES pretty close, there also doesn't seem to be all that much downside available from here.  But with the SPX Hi-Lo index nowhere near a reversal point and the NYSE A/D line continuing to put in lower highs, I'm just not feeling the love tonight so I'm going to call Thursday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is now just off its lower BB and fairly oversold but remains firmly in a descending RTC.  It's getting close to a buy but isn't quite there yet.