Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2088.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well well well.  The rollover I'd been expecting for three days now finally happened on Thursday as the Dow gave it up for 114 points lower.  At least I had the sense not to go with this three day uptrend.  I've seen this sort of whipsaw before and this was a classic case.  Now perhaps we can get on with things and see what the charts have to say about Friday.

Dow daily

The Dow:  Late last week the Dow provided us with two good reversal signs in arow that amounted to nothing as it put in three big days of gains this week.  Just look at this tricky chart (click to enlarge).  But the technicals finally prevailed as Wednesday's spinning top was confirmed with a big dump on Thursday.  That dropped the Dow out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup and finally got the stochastic off the ceiling with a bearish crossover.  Indicators are still overbought so this chart looks like there's more downside possible.

The technicals

The VIX: I've been watching the VIX sitting at multi-month lows for days now.  It finally took a tall hammer on Wednesday that just touched its lower BB to send it higher on Thursday, up five percent on a green marubozu.  That finally completed a bullish stochastic crossover and bottomed out the indicators.  This looks like a sign of higher to come.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are basically flat at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up just a single tick.  On Thursday ES finally peeled off its upper BB to cut its winning streak at three with a drop back to 2078.75.  That completed a bearish stochastic crossover and finally sent the indicators all off of overbought.  The net impression is now bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2096.25 to 2088.50. That now leaves ES right back below its new pivot so this indicator turns right back to bearish.

Dollar index:   Like the VIX, the dollar's been flirting with multi-month lows for a week now.  We finally got a bump on Wednesday that was confirmed Thursday with another 0.11% gain.  That was enough to curve the stochastic around for a bullish crossover and exit last week's descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  That all looks like more upside on Friday.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro followed up Wednesday's big dump with a long-legged doji that moved back down to 1.13115.  That left the indicators confused with RSI rising but everything else falling and a new bearish stochastic crossover from a low level.  That leaves this chart too tough for me, especially given the recent gyrations we've seen this week.

Transportation:  After a classic doji star on Wednesday, the trans confirmed it on Thursday with a big 1.21% dive, doubling the Dow's loss on the day on a tall red marubozu.  That sent the indicators all moving off extreme overbought (finally) and completed a bearish stochastic crossover, also finally.  That makes this chart look continued bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      4       5           1       0.556     148


     And the winner is...

Tonight the net outlook from the charts is decidedly bearish, but I've been burned twice this week by charts.  The key to trading is knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.  Any other time I'd just call this setup as a lower close but Mr. Market may have one more trick up his sleeve for Friday so I'm just going to call Friday uncertain.There's no law that says you have to play every day.  That;s all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2096.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

OK, that's it - another day, another miss.  I'm done with this. I'm perfectly willing to admit this market has me stumped.  After calling it lower once again, on Thursday the Dow just kept right on motoring higher against all expectations.  Well I'm out.  With all the usual clues I use now stretched out to extreme values, I have nothing left to guide me and therefore I just throw up my hands.  I'm just going to take a day off.  The market tonight looks a lot like it did last night and the night before.  Somehow it just refuses to go down.  Not that I'm complaining since I'm always net long anyway.  But enough is enough and I'm done. No charts, no call, I simply have nothing useful to say tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:27 AM EDT with ES up 0.20%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises yet again from 2092.33 to 2096.25.  And ES is once again above its new pivot so this indicator is back to bullish.

Accuracy: 
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      4       4           1       0.556     148


     And the winner is...

Right now all the charts are looking pretty bullish, so I'm definitely not going to call the market lower for Thursday - yes, I plead guilty to tape-fighting the past two days.  But I'm thinking the market is acting strangely this week so I'm just not willing to commit right now.  Ordinarily I'd say we're going higher but let's just call Thursday uncertain and leave it at that.  I really don't feel like getting whipsawed at this juncture.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2092.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Ah well - I did say last night that I was going out on a limb calling the market lower Tuesday, and while the Dow did fall briefly into negative territory after opening positive, an afternoon rally ended the day with a 49 point advance, propelled by a big jump in the price of oil.  In any event we now move on to Wednesday and see if anything besides oil matters anymore.

The technicals

The Dow:  forget all the reversal warnings.  On Tuesday the Dow kept climbing up its upper BB leaving the indicators extremely overbought (RSI=91.39).  This green spinning top is yet another reversal sign but those don't seem to mean much lately.

The VIX: Just when it looked like the VIX wasn't likely to go any lower - it did, off another percent on Tuesday down to 13.24 on a narrow green spinning top/doji-ish affair.  Indicators are even more oversold than yesterday, we're sitting on multi-month support, the stochastic is flat on the floor ready for a bullish crossover any moment - but it's not happening.  Whaaa...???

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.29%.  After a great day Monday, ES just kept right on going Tuesday for a record (for this contract) 2093.75 close.  The indicators remain extremely oversold and the stochastic is flattened out at the top  Right now we're just waiting for the other shoe to fall.  And waiting ... and waiting...

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2078.00 to 2092.33. That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:   Like many other charts, on Tuesday the dollar shrugged off Monday's gap-down spinning top with an even bigger gap down red marubozu falling all the way back to levels not seen sine last week - and eight months ago.  This dump also gave us a clear bearish stochastic crossover so with all the indicators falling it's entirely possible there could be more downside left here on Wednesday

Euro:  And the euro made it three up in a row on Tuesday with a big gain back to 1.1393.  But the indicators are confused with the stochastic rising but everything else falling.  The new overnight is also moving lower, casting doubt on the euro's ability to go for four.

Transportation:  What looked like an imminent bearish stochastic crossover last night wasn't, as the trans popped an impressive  gap-up 1.29% on Tuesday to clear six-month resistance at 8084 in a single bound, just touching their upper BB before falling back a bit.  Like the Dow, we're way overbought here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      3       4           1       0.625     191
 
     And the winner is...

The turn we've been waiting for for two days now may finally be at hand with a move lower in oil tonight due apparently to the end of a Kuwaiti oil worker's strike.  That seems to be taking the Asian markets lower along with our own futures.  I really hate to sound like the Owl Who Cried Wolf and I realize it looks like I'm engaging in the traders Deadly Sin of Tape Fighting but I just have to think the market's going lower Wednesday.  I know, I know - but this time I mean it.  If I'm wrong this time, I'm taking the rest of the week off.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2074.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

I'll admit to being a bit surprised by Monday's action.  I had figured that a failure of the OPEC oinkers to agree on production cuts would make oil move lower, not higher and yet it ended the day up two thirds of a percent.  And as has been its wont of late, the market followed suit with the Dow gaining almost as much, tasking my call for a lower close with it.  At least now we have some fresh charts to work off of so let's get to them and figure out what this all means for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  To my surprise, the Dow resolved two days of reversal warnings after hitting its upper BB to the upside o Monday with a green candle that closed above the upper BB and reclaimed the 18K handle for the first time since last July.  But that also leaves the indicators extremely overbought and the stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.  We remain in a week-long rising RTC so there's nothing technically bearish here.  I'm just worried about being so overextended.

The VIX: The VIX meanwhile just fell all day long Monday to come right back down to support just above 13.20.  That sent the indicators oversold and the stochastic curved around primed for a bullish crossover.  At this point, it looks like there's a lot more upside potential than downside risk here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:13 AM EDT with ES up 0.07% but YM down 0.12%.  After looking for all the world like it was going to fold after two reversal warnings last week, on Monday ES instead zoomed higher on a tall green near-marubozu that closed above its upper BB to just 2086.75.  That's the mother of all bullish engulfing patterns and leaves the indicators all overbought, though not extremely so.  The only caveats here are that we're now hard against six month resistance and volume has been declining for a week now making me wonder if ES has the  mojo to continue higher on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2074.83 to 2078.00. That now places ES above its new pivot and so this indicator flips right back to bullish.

Dollar index:   After a tall hanging man last Thursday and confirmation Friday, the dollar continued lower on Monday with a gap-down red spinning top off another 0.24%,  That sent the indicators lower and left the stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.

Euro:  After a bullish engulfing candle last Friday, the euro rose nicely on Monday to close at 1.1332 on a broad green spinning top.  That was enough to just complete a bullish stochastic crossover with indicators still just oversold, so that all looks positive for Tuesday.

Transportation:  The trans also rose on Monday but only half as much as the Dow, failing to break their intraday highs from the last two days.  Indicators are extremely overbought here too and the stochastic is also about to execute a bearish crossover.  Despite Monday's gains, the net impression is bearish.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      2       4           1       0.714     240


     And the winner is...

Tonight most of the charts are sitting on or near important S/R lines.  The VIX in particular looks ready to move higher.  I also found Monday's rally lacking in conviction.  But deciding when the market's going to give it up is tougher than usual right now.  All the Hi-Lo indices are kind of flattened out and not giving any meaningful signs.  Last night I thought the market was toppy and called it lower and I paid the price on Monday.  But you know what?  It still looks toppy.  So I'm going to go waaay out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2074.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well it looks like I picked a good day to take a vacation last Friday since the Dow ended the day off all of 29 points.  Tonight we're back in business but it's going to be a Night Owl Lite night again.  Op-ex Friday was pretty much a bust and more or less a re-run of Thursday so there's not much to learn from doing the detailed charts.  So tonight it's just the results, no blather,

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:21 AM EDT with ES down 0.60%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2075.58 to 2074.83. ES has now fallen well below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      1       4           1       0.833     347


     And the winner is...

The market's been looking kind of toppy for the past two days as the Dow encountered strong resistance just south of 18,000 after hitting its upper BB.  Tonight, judging by the futures and oil moving lower again it looks like it's finally ready to roll over so I'm going to go ahead and call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday on vacation.
• ES pivot 2069.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

My call last night was for Thursday to be "uncertain" and with the Dow finishing up all of 18 points, that seems about right.  Tonight we have a problem as the Night Owl had to go in for her annual eye exam on Thursday (hey, even owls need periodic checkups to maintain their sharp vision) and as a result tonight I can't see jack, Jack.  Ya can't check the charts if ya can't see 'em, so regrettably I'm going to have to take Friday off.  But it's op-ex anyway so who knows what will happen.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES up 0.69%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2069.00 to 2075.58. That now leaves ES essentially sitting right on top of the new pivot so this indicator is only nominaly bullish at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      1       4           1       0.833     347


     And the winner is...

We're taking a vacation day so you're on your own for Friday.  In any case I'm just expecting more odd gyrations.  With the weekend to recover, I'll be in form by Sunday night which is when I'll be back.  That's all she didn't even write.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2069.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

On Wednesday the market finally managed to string together two up in a row and did so in style with a 187 point pop in the Dow on a tall green marubozu that closed above its upper BB.  So let's see how that changes the picture as we near op-ex Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow handily cleared resistance at 17,087 Wednesday stopping just short of six month resistance at 17,929.  With two white soldiers, a completed bullish stochastic crossover, and all rising indicators, I can't find anything bearish about this chart.

The VIX: Much was made on CNBC Wednesday about the VIX giving up the 14 handle on Wednesday, but we've seen this number six times in the past two weeks.  I think of more import i the eight month support at 11.84.  Meanwhile we have a completed bearish stochastic crossover and falling indicators off a gap-down red candle.  Nothing bullish here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:25 AM EDT with ES down 0.12%.  ES also had a great day on Wednesday, blasting through resistance at 2066 to end at 2076 above its upper BB at 2074.  Indicators continue rising but are not yet overbought so there's not really anything bearish here tonight.  Except that there's no real pin action in the overnight and the fact that ES pretty much never continues higher after touching its upper BB (at least this contract hasn't).

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2047.83 to 2069.00.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   After bunches of failed reversal warnings, the dollar finally paid off on Wednesday with a 0.87% gap up fat hanging man that sent the indicators all rising to just off oversold.  So nothing bearish here either

Euro:  Last night I noted a nine-day congestion zone in the euro.  Well on Wednesday it finally gave up the ghost, diving right back to 1.13035 in a definitive break lower.  that sent all the indicators to oversold while the stochastic continues its bearish crossover lower.  While there's no bullish signs here right now, after such a big one day move, I'd expect a pause of sorts on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "it's looking good for the trans to take another shot at 7796 on Wednesday.".  Well that was nearly where they opened as they continued rocketing up through their 200 day MA to end at 7961 on a tall green gap-up marubozu.  With a completed bullish stochastic crossover here too and all the indicators rising off oversold, there's just nothing bearish here tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      1       3           1       0.833     347


     And the winner is...

There's nothing particularly bearish about any of the charts tonight.  But we've had a pretty decent two days here and without some support form the overnight futures, I don't feel really good about calling for a third day in a row higher.  On the other hand, futures off 0.12% aren't really enough to call the market lower, so I guess all that leaves is Thursday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2047.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Huh - well that was interesting,  After some back and forth out the gate, on Tuesday the Dow then motored higher to finish up 165 points by the closing bell.  This finally moves the needle so let's take a quick look at the charts for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  A tall green marubozu here generated a bullish stochastic crossover as well as a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit  The upper BB isn't til 17,846 so there's still a bit of room to run.

The VIX: After three days of back & forth, the VIX finally broke down on Tuesday, off nearly 9% for a bearish stochastic crossover.  That's finally looking like more downside on the way.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.23%.  Es resolved two days of indecision on Tuesday to the upside with a tall green near-marubozu to confirm a bullish stochashtic crossover.  that all looks good except for the fact that there's strong resistance at 2066. And ES seems to be gearing up for that already with a run higher in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2041.17 to 2047.83. That now puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar has now broken six-month support and with the failure of Monday's spinning top on Tuesday, there's no sign of an immediate move higher here.

Euro, daily

Euro:  However, the euro extended its indecision streak to nine in a row on Tuesday.  Just look at this chart - doji after doji after doji, with nothing to show for them.  And the new overnight's no help either  So there's still no direction here.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans confirmed their bullish stochastic crossover as they continue to see-saw higher, down-up-down-up.  We're nearing the 200 day MA and have already made two attempts on it in the last three days.  With indicators still just barely oversold, it's looking good for the trans to take another shot at 7796 on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      3      1       3           1       0.800     160

     And the winner is...

Tuesday's action seems to have kicked the market out of its recent stupor and produced a number of decent bullish signs.  With the overnight futures also guiding higher, and mindful of the fact that ES has alternate between gains and losses for six straight days now, I'm going to go ahead and call Wednesday higher

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2041.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Contrary to my expectations, the Dow took off higher Monday mor3ning, but it finally came back in to end the day with a 21 point loss, vindicating my call for a lower close.  But that's par for the course on op-ex weeks and we're probably in for more of the same as the week rolls on  Meanwhile, it's time for another Night Owl Lite night so we cut straight to the chase and skip the individual chart details tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:32 AM EDT with ES up 0.12%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2041.75 to 2041.17. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      3      1       2           1       0.800     160
 
     And the winner is...

I think that the forces that have been pushing the market lower lately are still there but are beginning to abate and we're getting closer to a reversal.  Unfortunately, the sorts of candles we got on Tuesday require confirmation.  And we're still not really sufficiently oversold so as to be able to call a move higher, though I do think one's coming before Friday.  While there's a possibility it could happen sooner, the signs aren't strong enough to do so now.  I hate to sound wishy-washy but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Tuesday uncertain.  It could be a bottoming day..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2041.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last Thursday's conditionla call for Friday worked out because ES remained above its new pivot by mid-morning Friday and the Dow did end higher.  But that was then and this is now so let's take a look at what the charts might be hinting at for Monday as we begin another op-ex week.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a big dump last Thursday the Dow tried to recover on Friday briefly surpassing Thursday's open early on, but finally to no avail, as it just spent the rest of the day edging lower.  In the end it still managed to eke out a 35 point gain on a tall inverted hammer.  It's a sign of a move higher but one that requires confirmation, particularly since the indicators are still only about halfway between overbought and oversold.

The VIX: Last Thursday night I let a bullish crossover get the better of me on the VIX.  Turns out it was a dark cloud cover that prevailed (something I'll admit I did not notice, perhaps because the candle was green) and the VIX dropped back five percent on a narrow doji star.  And that bullish stochastic crossover has now turned into a bearish crossover.  But with a star, all we can do is wait for confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down 0.12%.  ES gained a bit on Friday with a lopsided green spinning top that left indicators still wandering around in No Man's Land between overbought and oversold.  This isn't a good predictor either way though with further deterioration in the Sunday overnight, it's not looking all that great for Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily ticks up from 2041.00 to 2041.75. So ES is below its new pivot and this indicator is therefore bearish.

Dollar index:   After an indeterminate Thursday, the dollar fell again on Friday, very nearly down to support from way back last October.  Indicators remain oversold but I don't put too much stock in them as the momentum here remains overwhelmingly negative.


Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continues to remain stuck in a now seven day trading range featuring an amazing six spinning tops in a row, with nothing to show for any of them.  This is why this candle requires confirmation.  The new Sunday overnight is marginally higher but we're still waiting for the break and there's no telling which way this one is going to go.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I said that the trans were looking due for a winning day soon and that cam eon Friday as they rose just over one percent on a tall green inverted hammer that tested their 200 day MA, caused RSI to bottom out, exited a steep descending RTC for a bullish setup, and formed a new bullish stochastic crossover.  On balance, that all looks positive for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      2      1       2           1       0.750     139


     And the winner is...

One effect of last Friday was that both ES and the Dow exited long rising RTC's back to the January lows for a bearish setup.  The market's also been in a vague downtrend the last few days anyway but is not yet sufficiently oversold as to make a move higher a high probability.  So with the overnight futures guiding lower and despite a VIX that could go either way, I'm going to go out on a limb and call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..